Macro Extremes (week ending July 17, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion

 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

U.S 3-month bill yield *

Cocoa *

Robusta Coffee *

Wheat

GBP/JPY

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Copper/Gold Ratio *

Korean and Russian 10 year bond yields

U.S. 5 year minus 5 year breakeven inflation rate spread *

KBW Banks Index *

Thailand’s SET Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

COP/USD *

Singapore’s Strait Times *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

EUR/GBP *

Shanghai Composite Index

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

None

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

MOEX Russia Index

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose, again.

Except for the U.S. yields.

Encouragingly, U.S. corporate bond yields fell.

Chilean yields rose noticeably.

And, the U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year yield spread has risen for 4 weeks straight.

Equities were mixed, again.

Mexico’s IPC Index rose and snapped a 4-week losing streak.

While the FTSE Saudi Index has fallen for 4 weeks.

Inversely, the Dow Jones Transport are in a 4-week losing streak.

Many more equity indices dropped out from overbought territory.

Korea’s KOSPI has slumped 27% over the past 4 weeks.

And Russia’s MOEX has slumped for 9 consecutive weeks.

Commodities were also a mixed bag.

Oils, Gases, Distillates, Shipping Rates, Cocoa, Coffee, Oats, Corn & Wheat were the notable gainers.

Coal, Orange Juice, Lithium, Gold and Silver were amongst the decliners.

North European Hot Coiled Steel has risen for 4 weeks.

Cattle has sunk for 4 weeks.

Australian Coking Coal has fallen for 6 weeks.

Dutch TTF Gas has soared 37% in 3 weeks.

Arabica Coffee fell and broke a 5-week winning streak.

Robusta Coffee is in a 6 week winning streak.

JKM LNG as priced in Yen has soared 30% in the past 3 weeks.

Currencies were quieter.

The Aussie & the Loonie were mainly higher.

GBP/EUR and the GBP/JPY has risen for 4 weeks.

USD was mixed, again.

And COP/USD snapped an 8-week unbeaten streak.   

  

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 5%, Rotterdam Coal 2%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 3.6%, Brent Crude 15.9%, WTI Crude 15.1%, Lean Hogs 2.7%, Heating Oil 14.3%, JKM LNG 9.3%, LNG in Yen 12.5%, Newcastle Coal 3.6%, Gasoline 14%, S&P GSCI 6.1%, CRB Index 4.3%, TTF Gas 18%, U.S. Gulf Urea 4%, Gasoil 16.9%, Wheat 6.6%, IDX 4.2%, DJ Transports 2.5%, Hang Seng 1.6%, KLSE 2.4%, KRE 2.2%, Copenhagen 1.6% and PSE rose 1.9%.

The group of largest decliners for the week included; 

Australian Coking Coal (2.1%), Baltic Dry Index (6.5%), Cocoa (8.8%), Cotton (3.6%), Arabica Coffee (4.2%), Cattle (4.6%), Orange Juice (3%), Palladium (1.8%), Silver (6.6%), Gold (2.5%), Oats (4.2%), Shanghai (5.8%), CSI 300 (5.3%), ATX (1.9%), China A50 (4%), DFM (3.8%), FCATC (9.1%), Bovespa (2.3%), MOEX (8.7%), Dublin (2.3%), TAIEX (5.9%), Nasdaq Composite (2.9%), KSE (3.5%), KOSPI (8.8%), Nasdaq 100 (4.1%), Nikkei 225 (6.4%), PX (1.7%), SOX (10%), IGPA (1.5%), S&P 500 (1.6%), Vietnam (2.2%), XBI (3%), ASX Materials (2.8%), BIST 2.4% and the ASX Small Caps fell 2.6%.

July 19, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au