Macro Extremes (week ending March 20, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

10-year Austria, Belgian, Brazilian, Chilan, Czech, Spanish, British, Italian, Norwegian, Polish, Portuguese and U.S. government bond yields.

2-year Chilean and U.S. government bond yields.

3-year U.S. bond yields

5-year EU and U.S. bond yields

7-year U.S. bond yields

20 year U.S. bond yields

British 30-year bond yields

U.S. 5–7-year Investment Grade, High Yield and BB Rated yields

TBX

U.S. 5-year bond yield minus U.S. 3 month bill yield

U.S. 5-year bond yield minus U.S. inflation rate spread

Cotton

Palm Oil *

Sugar

Oats *

AUC/CHF *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Aussie 3-year government bond yields.

Australian and Japanese 5-year bond yields.

10-year Japanese bond yields

Australian Coking Coal

Rotterdam Coal *

Bloomberg Commodity Index *

North American Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

AUD/EUR *

AUD/GBP *

AUD/IDR

AUD/INR

AUD/JPY

AUD/SGD

CNH/USD

TAEIX *

KOSPI

OBX *

TA 35 Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Australian, EU, British and Italian 2-year government bond yields.

British 3 & 5 year bond yields

Indonesian and Greek 10-year government bond yields.

Richards Bay Coal *

Brent Crude Oil *

WTI Crude Oil *

Heating Oil *

JKM LNG in USD and Yen *

Newcastle Coal *

Gasoline *

S&P GSCI Index *

CRB Index *

Dutch TTF Gas *

Urea (U.S, Gulf and Middle East) *

Gasoil *

AUD/ZAR

AUD/THB *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

IEI

SHY

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 5 year minus 2 year bond yield spread

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread

CHF/AUD *

KRW/USD *

CAC Index

IDX Composite *

DAX Index

Nasdaq Composite

S&P 500

ASX Industrials *

ASX Industrials

UAE’s DFM Index

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

EUR/AUD

GBP/AUD *

HKD/USD

JPY/AUD

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Australian 10 year minus Aussie 2 year bond yield spread

Australian 10 year minus Aussie 5 year bond yield spread

NZD/AUD *

INR/USD

NIFTY *

SENSEX *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose, again.

More 10-year government bond yields joined the overbought list.

Many more yield spreads are on this week’s list.

And Chilean 2-year yields have risen for 7 consecutive weeks.

Equities continued their decline.

Austria’s ATX, Indonesia’s IDX, DJ Industrials, BOVESPA, S&P Small Cap 600, Russell 2000, Nasdaq Composite, KRE Regional Banks, S&P MidCap 400, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, NIFTY and ASX Financials have all declined for 4 straight weeks.

China’s FCATC has fallen for 5 weeks.

Pakistan’s KSE has declined for 8 weeks.

Inversely, Norway’s OBX has risen for 8 weeks.

Australia’s Materials Index has slumped 20% within 3 weeks.

Indonesia’s IDX Composite man reverted having fallen 27% over the past 8 weeks.

And India’s NIFTY is at its lowest close since early April 2025.

Commodities were mixed, again.

Coal, Oils, LNG, Coffee, Sugar and Distillates were the notable gainers. 

Aluminium, Copper, Tn, Orange Juice, Palladium, Silver, Gold and Soybeans were amongst the decliners.

Gold in no longer overbought, no matter which currency.

Brent Crude, Heating Oil, WTI Crude, JKM LNG, Gasoline, CRB Index and Middle Eastern Urea have closed higher for 5 weeks straight.

Sugar #16 is in a 6-week winning streak.

Iron Ore fell and snapped 4 weeks of advance.

Soybeans fell and broke a 6 week winning streak

U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 15 consecutive weeks.

And Copper is at its lowest weekly close since late November, 2025.

Currencies were quieter.

The Aussie rose and AUD pairs still feature amongst the extremes.

AUD/EUR fell and snapped a 12 week rising streak.

The Loonie was weaker.

The Euro rose.

The Kiwi rose against the Aussie and broke a 6 week losing run.

CAD/JPY fell and broke a 4 week winning streak.

While the Colombian Peso has declined for 5 weeks against the USD.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Australian Coking Coal 3.6%, Richards Bay Coal 4.6%, Brent Crude 8.8%, WTI Crude 1.9%, Cotton 2.2%, Heating Oil 13.8%, JKM LNG 18.4%, Arabica Coffee 8.6%, Cattle 1.7%, JKM LNG in Yen9.5%, Newcastle Coal 7.5%, Gasoline 8%, Robusta Coffee 6.1%, Sugar 9.3%, Sugar #16 5.3%, Dutch TTF Gas 16.9%, Urea U.S. Gulf 3.2%, Gasoil 19%, KBW Banks 1.6%, EGX 1.8%, KOSPI 5.4%, SET 1.7%, STI 2.2%, TA35 3.3% and Dubai’s DFM Index rose 2.3%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Aluminium (8.8%), Lean Hogs (2.3%), Copper (6.6%), Lithium Carbonate (2.5%), Lithium Hydroxide (2.1%), Tin (8.4%), Natural Gas (2%), Orange Juice (19%), Palladium (8.5%), Platinum (3.5%), Uranium (2.9%), Silver in AUD (16.2%), Silver in USD (15.8%), Gold in AUD (11%), Gold in CAD (10.5%), Gold in CHF (10.8%), Gold in EUR (11.6%), Gold in GBP (11.2%), Gold in USD (10.5%), Gold in ZAR (10.2%), Oats (4.9%), Rice (2.5%), Soybean (5.2%), Wheat (3%), Shanghai Composite (3.4%), CSI 300 (2.2%), All World Developed ex USA (1.6%), AEX (4%), ATX (1.3%), CAC (3.1%), DAX (4.6%), DJ Industrials (2.3%), FCATC (4.3%), MIB (3.3%), IBB (2.3%), IBEX (2%), Russell 2000 (1.8%), Nasdaq Composite (2.1%), FTSE 250 (3.3%), S&P MidCap 400 (1.6%), Mexico (2.3%), Nasdaq 100 (2%), Copenhagen (2.7%), Helsinki (2.4%), Stockholm (5.1%), South Africa 40 (4.8%), SMI (4%), IGPA (1.7%), S&P 500 (1.9%), TSX (3.8%), FTSE (3.3%), Vietnam (2.9%), ASX 200 (2.2%), ASX Materials (7.1%), ASX Industrials (2.4%) and the ASX Smal Caps fell 4%.

March 22, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au