Macro Extremes (week ending January 30, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Indian 10 year bond yield *

U.S. 5 year bond yield

Rotterdam Coal

Brent and WTi Crude Oil

Copper

LNG priced in Yen *

Newcastle Coal

S&P GSCI Index *

CRB Index *

Dutch TTF Gas *

AUD/EUR *

AUD/GBP *

AUD/SGD

AUD/USD

CHF/USD *

COP/USD *

NZD/USD

And Thailand’s SET Index

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Australian 2 year government bond yields *

Japanese yield curve

South Korean 10 year bond yield *

U.S. 5 year bond yield

Australian Coking Coal

LME Aluminium

Gold in CAD, CHF, GBP and USD

AUD/JPY *

CHF/JPY *

CNH/USD *

EUR/JPY *

GBP/JPY *

GBP/USD

Shanghai Composite *

Austria’s ATX Index *

Dow Jones Transports *

Hang Seng Index

Spain’s IBEX *

Taiwan’s TAIEX

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

South Korea’s KOSPI Index *

Helsinki’s OMX *

Stockholm’s OMX

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity Index *

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

Chile’s IGPA *

Singapore’s Strait Times Index

Israel’s TA-35

Nasdaq Transports *

FTSE 100 *

Poland’s WIG Index *

And the ASX Materials Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Bloomberg Commodity Index

Gold Volatility Index

Tin *

Uranium *

AUD/CAD *

AUD/IDR *

AUD/INR *

AUD/SGD

AUD/THB

AUD/USD

CLP/USD *

MYR/USD

USD/INR

ZAR/USD

All World Developed (ex USA) *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

Brazil’s BOVESPA *

Taiwan’s TAEIX

Malaysia’s KLSE

Mexico’s IPC Index

And Türkiye’s BIST Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian 10 year minus 2 year yield spread

Copper/Gold Ratio

DXY Index

Sugar #16

CAD/CHF

EUR/CHF

JPY/AUD *

USD/DKK

USD/SGD *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield

Sugar #16 *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Cocoa (LME & CBOT)

CAD/AUD

USD/CLP *

USD/MXN *

USD/SEK *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields eased, except for the U.S. 20 and 30 years

U.S. BB rated high yields ticked up.

French 10 year yields have declined for 4 weeks.

U.S. 5 year minus 5 yer inflation break-even has declined for 5 weeks.

While, in isolation, the 5 year break-even is nearing an overbought quinella.

Japanese yield climbing streaks continue.

Chilean 2’s left oversold territory.

Chilean 10-2 spread isn’t overbought.

Korean 10 year and U.S. 3 year yields fell and snapped 5 weeks of advance.

Japanese 10 year yields broke 6 weeks of higher travel.

Japanese 5’s fell and broke a 14 week climbing streak.

Equities were mixed.

While some left, many indices remain in overbought extreme territory.

Biotech indices fell out of overbought land.

The TA35 and BIST have climbed for 5 weeks.

TAIEX, KOSPI, EGX and STI are in 6 week winning streaks.

The SOX have risen for 7 weeks.

Poland’s WIG has soared for 8 weeks.

The All World Developed-ex USA & Austria’s ATX have climbed for 10 weeks.

Hungary’s BUX has closed higher 7 of out last 8 weeks.

China’s FCATC and Nasdaq Transports fell and respectively broke 5 and 10 week winning streaks.

The FTSE 250 snapped a 6 week winning streak.

Pakistan’s KSE broke a climb of 11 consecutive weeks.

And, at one stage, Indonesia’s IDX was down 16% for the week.

Commodities were mixed but very active.

Coal,  Oils, Fuels, Gases, Shipping Rates, Uranium and Rice were the notable gainers. 

Precious Metals, Lithium, Cocoa, Tin, Coffee and Nickel were the few decliners.

The big news was Silver 30% decline on Friday alone, along with the decline of the other precious metals which also saw them and Aluminium register weekly outside reversals.

Palm Oil, Gasoline, S&P GSCI, CRB, Gasoil, Rice and Wheat are in 4 week winning streaks.

Heating Oil and Australian Coking Coal have risen for 5 weeks.

Brent and WTI Crude are in a 6 week winning streak.

Uranium has soared for 10 weeks.

Lithium prices fell and snapped a 6 week advance.

The U.S. Gulf Urea price has risen for 8 weeks.

While Orange Juice fell and halted 7 weeks of advance.

Cocoa and Iron Ore have sunk for 4 weeks

And North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel has declined for 5 weeks in a row.

Currencies were busy.

The Aussie rose.

The AUD against the GBP, IDR, INR and Yen has climbed for 4 weeks.

AUD/EUR has risen for 6 weeks.

USD/BRL is lower for 5 weeks.

GBP/EUR is in a 7 winning streak.

CHF/AUD has fallen for 6 weeks.

Canadian Dollar was mixed.

The USD/INR has climbed for 6 weeks.

And, the USD rose against the South African Rand and snapped a 9 week streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Richards Bay Coal 4.1%, Rotterdam Coal 4.7%, Brent Crude 6.9%, Baltic Dry Index 13.6%, WTI Crude 6.8%, Heating Oil 8.2%, JKM LNG 2.1%, LNG in Yen 3%, Tin 6.2%, Newcastle Coal 6.1%, Natural Gas 16.4%, Gasoline 3.4%, S&P GSCI 2.4%, CRB Index 2.5%, Dutch TTF Gas 2.5%, Gasoil 9.9%, Uranium 12%, Oats 3.2%, Rice 3.5%, Wheat 1.6%, ATX 1.6%, All Developed World ex USA 1.5%, KBW Banks 2%, BUX 3%, EGX 2.9%, HSCEI 1.7%, Hang Seng 2.4%, IBEX 1.9%, BOVESPA 1.4%, KRE 1.8%, KOSPI 4.6%, Mexico 1.9%, PX 1.6%, WIG 2.1% and BIST rose 6.5%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Aluminium (1.8%), LME Cocoa (3.1%), Arabica Coffee (5%), Lithium Carbonate (4.5%), Lithium Hydroxide (11%), Nickel (4.5%), Orange Juice (3.8%), Palladium (16%), Platinum (22.6%), Sugar (3.2%) LME Tin (8.6%), Silver in AUD 18.4%, Silver in USD (17.6%), Gold in AUD (2.8%), Gold in CAD (2.4%), Gold in CHF (2.8%), Gold in EUR (2%), Gold in GBP (2.2%), Gold in USD (1.9%), IDX (6.9%), DAX (1.5%), FCATC (2.2%), IBB (1.7%), Russell 2000 (2%), KSE (2.6%), S&P MidCap 400 (1.4%), NBI (1.4%), SA40 (1.9%), TSX (3.7%), VN Index (2.2%), XBI (2.6%) and the ASX Small Caps fell 3.1%.

February 1, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au