Macro Extremes (week ending January 2, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Austrian 10 year bond yields

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Australian 2, 3 and 5 year bond yield

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

Danish & Korean 10 year government bond yields *

European 20 and 30 year bond yields

The Japanese bond yield curve

Silver in AUD & USD *

CHF/JPY *

EUR/JPY *

GBP/JPY *

MYR/USD *

All World Developed ex USA index

Austria’s ATX Index

U.S. KBW Bank Index *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Indonesia’s IDX Composite Index

Egypt’s EGX Index *

Spain’s IBEX *

Taiwan’s TAEIX

Malaysia’s KLSE Index

Pakistan’s KSE Index

South Korea’s KOSPI Index

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

OMX Helsinki Index *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity index *

Chile’s IGPA *

Singapore’s Strait Times *

Israel’s TA35 *

Nasdaq Transports *

Canada’s TSX equity index *

FTSE 100

S&P Biotech Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Lithium Hydroxide

Nickel

CNH/USD *

ZAR/USD

Poland’s WIG Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

None

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 10 year minus the Australian 10 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year yield spread *

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber *

Sugar #16 *

Rice *

JPY/AUD *

JPY/CAD

NZD/AUD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

USD/CNH

USD/ZAR

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields generally rose.

U.S. 2 year bond yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

Danish 10 year yields have climbed for 5 weeks.

Brazilian 10 year yields fell and snapped a 4 week rise.

Japanese 2 and 5 year bond yields have risen for 7 weeks straight.

Indonesian 10 year yields have fallen for 5 weeks.

Turkish 10’s have sunken for 7 weeks.

Equities were mixed to mostly higher.

Malaysia’s KLSE fell and broke a 4 week winning streak.

Poland’s WIG has risen for 4 weeks.

The Russell 2000 and South Africa 40 have climbed for 4 weeks.

The All World Developed Index, Austria’s ATX, Spain’s IBEX, Norway’s OBX, Czechia’s PX, South Africa’s SA40, Israel’s TA-35, and the ASX Financials are in 6 week winning streaks.

KBW Bank Index, ASX Financials and DJ Transports fell and broke a 5 week winning streak.

Pakistan’s KSE has climbed for 8 consecutive weeks.

Commodities were also mixed.

Coffee, Cattle, Lithium Hydroxide, Nickel, and Orange Juice were the notable gainers. 

Palladium, Platinum, Gold, Corn, oats, Rice and Tin were the notable decliners.

None of the precious metals are overbought, this week.

Orange Juice has advanced for 4 weeks, climbing 44% over that time.

Uranium’s winning streak extends to 6 weeks.

Gasoline has slumped for 4 weeks.

Lithium Hydroxide has moved into overbought territory.

Silver in AUD broke its 7 week winning streak.

Rice has fallen for 7 straight weeks.

Currencies were quieter.

The Aussie was mostly weaker.

AUD/JPY, MYR/USD and GBP/USD fell and broke their 5 week winning streaks.

CAD was lower.

CAD/JPY and GBP/JPY fell and broke a 7 week advance.

EUR/CHF has declined for the past 4 weeks.

THB/USD fell and broke its 6 week climb.

Inversely, the USD has fallen against the South African Rand for 6 weeks.

And the USD/Chinese Yuan is oversold.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Copper/Gold Ratio 2.5%, Arabica Coffee 2%, Cattle 2.8%, Lithium Hydroxide 15.4%, Aluminium 1.9%, Nickel 6.5%, Orange Juice 4.3%, Robusta Coffee 2.5%, Dutch TTF Gas 3.9%, AEX 2.8%, ATX 2%, IDX 2.5%, FCATC 3.4%, MIB 1.7%, HSCEI 2.9%, Hang Seng 2%, IBEX 1.9%, TAEIX 2.8%, KSE 3.9%, KOSPI 4.4%, OBX 1.8%, OMX-H 2%, SOX 2.2%, TA35 2.6%, VN Index 3.2%, WIG 3.5% and BIST rose 1.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Bloomberg Commodity Index (2.6%), Palm Oil (2.4%), Copper (2.5%), Lumber (3.4%), Lithium Carbonate (9.3%), Tin (5.2%), Newcastle Coal (2.8%), Natural Gas (6.7%), Palladium (16.4%), Platinum (14.2%), Sugar (3.8%), Silver in AUD (7.9%), Silver in USD (8.2%), Gold in AUD (4.2%), Gold in CAD (4%), Gold in CHF (4.1%), Gold in EUR (4%), Gold in GBP (4.2%), Gold in USD (4.4%), Gold in ZAR (5.3%), Corn (2.8%), Oats (3.3%), Rice (4.2%), Soybean (2.5%), Wheat (2.4%), IBB (1.8%), S&P SmallCap 600 (1.4%), Nasdaq Composite (1.5%), KRE (1.9%), Mexico (2.3%), NBI (1.8%), S&P 600 (1.4%) and XBI fell 2.8%.

January 4, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au