Macro Extremes (week ending December 19, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Chilean 10 year minus 2 year bond yield spread

European 5 and 10 year bond yields

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus U.S. 5 year inflation breakeven spread

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread

Australian Coking Coal

ZAR/USD

Italy’s MIB Index

Malaysia’s KLSE Index

Nasdaq Transports *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *

Japanese 2, 5 and 30 year bond yields

Aluminium (LME price)

Palladium

Silver in AUD & USD

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP & USD *

AUD/JPY *

CAD/JPY *

CHF/JPY *

CNH/USD *

EUR/JPY *

MYR/USD *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Spain’s IBEX *

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

OMX Helsinki Index

South Africa’s SA40 equity index *

Chile’s IGPA *

Israel’s TA35 *

Canada’s TSX equity index *

FTSE 100 Index

And the S&P Biotech ETF *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Danish 10 year government bond yield

Euro 20 and 30 year bond yields

Japanese 10 year government bond yields *

Tin

Platinum

GBP/JPY *

Austria’s ATX equity index *

U.S. KBW Bank Index *

Czechia’s PX Index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Brent Crude Oil

JKM LNG in Yen

Wheat

AUD/THB

BRL/USD

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 10 year minus the Australian 10 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year minus the European 10 year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year yield spread

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber *

Sugar #16 *

Rice *

JPY/USD

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

None

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose, again, again.

The Australian yield curve has climbed for 4 weeks.

Japanese 2 and 5 year bond yields have risen for 5 weeks straight.

Kiwi 10 year yields fell and broke 8 weeks of advance.

The U.S. 10 year minus Australian 10 year bond yield spread has fallen for 8 weeks.

And Chilean 2 year bond yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

Equities were mixed.

Many indices appearing in last week’s overbought list, are no longer so.

The All World Developed Index, Austria’s ATX, Dow Jones Transports, Italy’s MIB, Spain’s IBEX, Norway’s OBX, Czechia’s PX, South Africa’s SA40, Israel’s TA-35, and the ASX Financials are in 4 week winning streaks.

U.S. Regional Bank Index has risen for 5 weeks.

Pakistan’s KSE has climbed for 6 consecutive weeks.

The Nasdaq Transportation Index fell and broke its 4 week winning streak.

Chile’s IGPA fell and broke a 9 week winning streak.

Commodities were mixed, again.

Orange Juice, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Uranium, Nickel and Lithium were the notable gainers. 

Shipping Rates, Coffee, Gases, Distillates, Soybeans and Cocoa dominated the losers category.

Platinum has soared 30% in the past week.

Orange Juice has climbed 33% in the past fortnight.

Heating Oil has fallen 10% over the last 2 weeks,

While the Baltic Dry Index has given up 27% over the same time.

Lithium Hydroxide is no longer oversold.

Cattle, Tin and Silver (in USD) have risen for 4 weeks.

While Silver as priced in AUD is in a 7 week winning streak.

Newcastle Coal, Gasoil and Rice has fallen for 5 straight weeks.

Wheat is in a 7 week slump.

Currencies were active.

The Yen’s weakness continues and is seen in various pairs such as against the CAD & GBP across a 6 week losing streak.

The Aussie mostly fell and as a result, all of last weeks overbought readings are no longer so.

AUD/JPY and MYR/USD have risen for 4 consecutive weeks.

CAD/JPY has climbed for 6 weeks.

The British Pound was higher.

The USD firmed enough to move certain pairs out of oversold territory.

And the USD/Chinese Yuan is oversold.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Australian Coking Coal 2.4%, Aluminium 3%, Copper 2.8%, Lithium Carbonate 7.4%, Lithium Hydroxide 4.1%, Tin 2.7%, Nickel 3.8%, Orange Juice 21.4%, Palladium 15.8%, Platinum 14.5%, Dutch TTF Gas 1.7%, Urea U.S. Gulf prices 1.6%, Uranium 3.8%, Silver in AUD 9.2%, Oats 4.2%, Gold in AUD 1.6%, ATX 2.6%, MIB 2.9%, IBEX 1.9%, KLSE 1.7%, FTSE 250 2%, PX 3.3%, SMI 2.2%, FTSE 100 2.6% and Vietnam rose 3.5%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Baltic Dry Index (8.3%), Cocoa (6.9%), WTI Crude Oil (1.4%), Palm Oil (2.9%), Heating Oil (3.3%), JKM LNG (1.7%), Arabica Coffee (7.8%), Natural Gas (3.1%), Gasoline (2.4%), Robusta Coffee (8.4%), Sugar (1.4%), Gasoil (3.5%), Soybeans (2.4%), EGX (2.6%), FCATC (2.3%), HSCEI (2%), S&P SmallCap 600 (1.4%), TAIEX (1.8%), KOSPI (3.5%), Nikkei 225 (2.6%), PSE (1.9%) and the ASX Material Index fell 1.8%.

December 21, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au