Macro Extremes (week ending October 24, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Aluminium *

CAD/JPY

CHF/AUD

GBP/JPY

USD/JPY

AEX

FTSE 250

Nifty

Sensex

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Platinum *

Silver in AUD and USD *

CHF/JPY *

EUR/JPY

Shanghai Composite

CSI 300

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Spain’s IBEX *

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

Nasdaq Composite

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Nasdaq 100

Japan’s Nikkei 225 *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *

Canada’s TSX *

FTSE 100

S&P Biotech ETF *

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Aluminium (LME)

Platinum

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD & ZAR *

South Korea’s KOSPI *

Finland’s OMXH

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Austrian, Australian, Danish, Spanish, Greek, Italian, Dutch & Portuguese 10 year government bond yields

British 2, 3, 5 & 10 year bond yields

U.S. 30 year bond yields

AUD/CHF *

EUR/CHF *

JPY/CAD

JPY/USD *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Indonesian 10 year bond yield

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. inflation rate

Richards Bay Coal *

Urea (Middle East)

Rice *

JPY/EUR

NZD/AUD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Indonesia 10 year government bond yield

Sugar

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields fell except for EU, U.S. and Japanese versions.

European 10’s rose and broke a 4 week losing streak.

The U.S. 5 year inflation breakeven rate remains near being oversold even it moved from 2.3% to 2.4% during the week.

Portuguese and U.S, 10 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks as have U.S. 20’s.

U.S. 30’s have fallen for 5 weeks.

Austrian 10’s rose and broke 5 weeks of decline

And U.S. Corporate BB rated and 5-7 year investment grade paper is very close to being oversold.

Equities had a good week.

We saw Chinese, British, Nasdaq Composite and the 100 return to overbought territory.

The BUX, KOSPI, Nifty, Sensex and Finland’s OMXH are in a 4 week winning streak.
The biotech indices have risen for 6 weeks.

Egypt’s EGX has advanced for 7 weeks.

TAIEX has climbed for 9 weeks.

Inversely, the U.S. KRE Regional Banks Index and Türkiye’s BIST rose and broke 4 weeks of decline.

While the Nikkei 225 has risen for 8 of the past 9 weeks.

Commodities were active, again.

Aluminium, Cocoa, Copper, Oils, Gases and Distillates were amongst the notable gainers. 

Lumber, Palm Oil, Cattle, Palladium, Sugar, Rice, Silver and Gold dominated the losers category. 

Silver and Gold (across various currencies) fell and snapped a 9 week winning streak.

Cattle and Palladium fell enough to leave overbought territory.

Crude Oil bounces and easily erased the 5% decline of the previous fortnight.

Sugar registers an oversold quinella.

Oats rose and snapped its 4 weeks of decline.

Lean Hogs have fallen for 4 weeks.

Rice has swooned for 8 weeks.

And Middle Eastern Urea prices rose and broke its 8 week losing streak.

Currencies were busy.

We saw many pairs swapping places in the extreme list and many currencies reversing last week’s travel.

The Aussie and Loonie rose.

The Swissie as weaker.

Euro firmed.

The Yen fell.

And the Thai Baht rose against the USD to break 5 weeks of decline.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 3.4%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.5%, Brent Crude Oil 7.6%, Cocoa 7.2%, WTI Crude Oil 7.6%, Copper 3.1%, Heating Oil 10.2%, Arabica Coffee 1.4%, LNG in Yen 2.3%, Natural Gas 9.8%, Nickel 1.5%, Orange Juice 3.6%, Gasoline 4.9%, Tin 2.7%, S&P GSCI 3.6%, CRB Index 3.3%, Gasoil 12.5%, Oats 4.8%, Soybean 2.3%, Wheat 1.7%, Shanghai 2.9%, CSI 300 3.2%, All World Developed ex USA 1.4%, AEX 2.4%, ATX 1.9%, KBW Banks 3.6%, Cjina A50 3.6%, IDX 4.5%, DAX 1.7%, DJ Industrials 2.3%, FCATC 5.8%, MIB 1.7%, HSCEI 3.9%, Hang Seng 3.6%, IBEX 1.7%, BOVESPA 1.9%, S&P SmallCap 600 3%, Russell 2000 2.5%, Nasdaq Composite 2.3%, KRE Regional Banks 3.6%, KOSPI 5.1%, FTSE 250 3.4%, S&P MidCap 400 2.3%, Nasdaq 100 2.2%, Nikkei 225 3.8%, Helsinki 5.5%, Stockholm 3.2%, SET 3.1%, SOX 2,9%, S&P 500 1.9%, STI 2.2%, WIG 3.4%, BIST 7.2% and the FTSE 100 rose 3.1%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Baltic Dry Index 3.8%), Palm Oil (2%), Lumber (7%), Cattle (3.3%), Palladium (2.7%), Sugar 3.4%, Silver in AUD (6.5%), Silver in USD (6.3%), Gold in AUD (3.6%), Gold in CAD (3.4%), Gold in CHF (3%), Gold in EUR (3.1%), Gold in GBP (2.5%), Gold in USD (3.3%), Gold in ZAR (5.8%), Rice (3.8%), PSE (1.7%), RUS10 (6.3%), VN Index (2.8%) and the ASX Materials Index fell 2%.

October 26, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au