Macro Extremes (week ending October 17, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Finnish10 year government bond yields

Aluminium *

DXY Index

CHF/AUD

COP/USD

GBP/JPY *

USD/CAD *

USD/KRW *

USD/SGD *

CAC Index

Vietnam’s VN equity index *

And Switzerland’s SMI equity index *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Cattle *

CHF/JPY *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF

Spain’s IBEX

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Nasdaq Biotech Index 

Japan’s Nikkei 225 *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *

Canada’s TSX *

ASX Materials Index 

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Gold Volatility Index *

Palladium

Platinum

Silver in AUD & USD *

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD & ZAR *

CHF/CAD

South Korea’s KOSPI *

S&P Biotech Index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Austrian, Australian, Danish, Spanish, British, Greek and Dutch 10 year government bond yields

British 5 year bond yields

Cotton *

Nickel (Indian MCX)

Sugar (+2 month)

AUD/CHF

EUR/CHF

GBP/USD

JPY/USD *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Richards Bay Coal *

Lithium Carbonate *

Urea (Middle East)

Rice *

NZD/AUD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Indonesia 10 year government bond yield

CAD/CHF

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields fell, again again.

Japanese 5 year and Russian 10 year bond yield fell and snapped their 5 weeks rise.

The U.S. 5 year minus U.S. inflation rate is hovering above oversold territory.

The U.S. 5 year inflation breakeven rate is also near being oversold.

European 10’s, U.S. 30’s and TBT & TBX have fallen for 4 weeks.

Austrian 10’s have fallen for 5 weeks.

And U.S. BB Corporate High Yield paper is very close to being oversold.

Equities had a mixed week, with gainers outpacing decliners.

We saw many equity indices leave overbought territory including those from China, France, Israel and Germany.

The S&P Biotech Index has risen for 5 weeks.

Egypts EGX has advanced for 6 weeks.

TAIEX has climbed for 8 weeks.

Inversely, the U.S. KRE Regional Banks Index and Türkiye’s BIST have fallen 4 weeks.

The Nikkei 225 fell and broke its 6 weeks of consecutive advance.

While the ASX Small Caps fell and snapped its winning streak at 10 weeks.

Commodities were active.

Aluminium, Coal, Coffee, Lumber and Precious Metals were amongst the notable gainers. 

Crude Oil, Tin, Natural Gas, Orange Juice, Sugar & Uranium dominated the losers category. 

Palladium and Platinum rejoined the overbought club.

Crude Oil has declined 5% over the past fortnight.

While the front month off Richards Bay Coal is oversold, the forward month contract rose 2.9%, which moved it out of oversold territory and snapping its 11 week losing streak.

Silver and Gold (across various currencies) have risen for 9 consecutive weeks.

The Copper/Gold Ratio fell to its lowest reading since April 2020. Prior to that it was last seen at this level between Nov 2008 – Feb 2009 and matches the reading in February 1990.

Cocoa rose and broke its 8 week losing streak, which also moved it out of overbought territory.

Oats have lost ground for the past 4 weeks.

Rice has swooned for 7 weeks.

And Middle Eastern Urea prices have sunk for 8 weeks.

Currencies were busy.

We saw many pairs swapping places in the extreme list.

The Aussie was subdued, with a bias for weakness.

The Loonie was weaker.

The Swissie rose and appears in many extremes this week.

The Euro mostly fell.

The British Pound was firmer.

The DXY is back in overbought territory.

And the Thai Baht has fallen for 5 weeks versus the USD.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 2.6%, Rotterdam Coal 3.7%, Copper 1.5%, Arabica Coffee 6.5%, Lumber 3.9%, Newcastle Coal 1.7%, Palladium 3.5%, Robusta Coffee 1.6%, Silver in AUD 3%, Silver in USD 3.3%m Gold in AUD 5.5%, Gold in CAD 5.9%, Gold in CHF 5.1%, Gold in EUR 5.6%, Gold in GBP 5.4%, Gold in USD 5.8%, Gold in ZAR 5%, Corn 2.3%, AEX 1.6%, CAC 3.2%, China A50 4.1%, DJ Industrials 1.5%, DJ Transports 4%, IBB 2.8%, BOVESPA 1.9%, S&P SmallCap 600 2.9%, Russell 2000 2.4%, Nasdaq Composite 2.1%, KOSPI 3.8%, S&P MidCap 400 1.9%, Mexico 1.9%, Nasdaq Biotechs 2.5%, Nasdaq 100 2.5%, NIFTY 1.7%, SENSEX 1.8%, SOX 5.8%, S&P 600 3%, IGPA 4.9%, S&P 500 1.7%, Nasdaq Transports 3.5%, S&P Biotech 2.7% & the ASX Materials index rose 4%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Brent Crude Oil (2.3%), WTI Crude Oil (2.2%), Palm Oil (1.4%), Lean Hogs (2%), Heating Oil (1.3%), Tin (3.5%), Natural Gas (3.2%), Orange Juice (10%), Sugar (3.7%), Gasoil (3%), Uranium (2.4%), Shanghai Composite (1.4%), CSI 300 (2.2%), ATX (1.9%), IDX (4.1%), DAX (1.7%), FCATC (6.9%), HSCEI (3.7%), Hang Seng (4%), KRE Regional Banks (1.9%), OBX (1.7%), STI (2.2%) and Israel’s TA-35 fell 2%.

October 19, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au