Macro Extremes (week ending July 11, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Copper/Gold Ratio

Copper

CSI 300 Index

Shanghai Composite Index *

China A50 Index

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

Cattle

Urea (U.S. gulf prices)

Gasoil

CAD/JPY

CHF/JPY *

CHF/USD *

EUR/JPY

EUR/USD *

Hungary’s BUX Index

South Korea’s KOSPI *

And the Tel Aviv 35 equity index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Palladium 

Platinum 

Urea (Middle East) prices

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Vietnam’s VN Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus U.S. 3 month bill yield spread

Arabica Coffee *

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Robusta Coffee *

CAD/CHF *

CAD/EUR *

USD/CHF *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose, except for Finland’s and Indonesia’s.

Chilean 2 year bond yields rose and broke their 6 weeks of decline.

Russian 10 year bonds yield has fallen for 7 straight weeks.

China’s 10 year yields have declined for 6 weeks.

Norwegian 10’s are in a 4 week losing streak.

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year yield spread is at maximum bullishness

And the U.S. 10 year divided by Aussie 10 year yield is entering a new downtrend.

Equities were generally higher, although subdued compared to recent weeks.

This week sees some Chinese indices registering some overbought extremes.

The Philadelphia SOX index is in a 7 week winning streak. 

Hungary’s BUX and Vietnam’s VN Index are also overbought this week.

The latter is in a 4 week winning streak along with Israel’s TA35.

Commodities were mixed, again.

Coal, Oil, Copper, Precious Metals, Urea and Orange Juice were the notable gainers.

Shipping Rates, Cocoa, Coffee, Gases, OrangeJuice and Rice dominated the losers category.

Rubber is in a 4 week wining streak.

Urea has climbed for 5 weeks and appears in this weeks overbought list.

Platinum has risen for 6 weeks straight and has registered an overbought quinella.

Orange Juice soared and broke its 5 weeks losing streak.

Aluminium broke its 5 week winning streak.

Sugar rose and broke its 8 week losing streak.

Rice has fallen for 4 weeks.

Arabica is in a 5 week losing streak.

Corn is nearing an oversold quinella.

And Nickel’s downtrend is picking steam.

Currencies were active, again.

The U.S. Dollar (DXY) Index rose and leaves oversold territory.

The USD/CHF is at maximum bearishness.

Brazil’s Real few and broke its 5 week winning streak vs the USD.

The Euro and Yen were both weaker.

The EUR/JPY has climbed for 7 weeks.

CAD/CHF is in a 5 week losing streak.

CHF/JPY has risen for 7 weeks.

The Aussie rose. 

The AUD/IDR and AUD/JPY have risen for 4 weeks.

The latter is nearing an overbought reading.

The AUD/EUR rose and broke its 4 week losing streak.

The Swiss rose.

The Loonie was mixed.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Richards Bay Coal 2.8%, Rotterdam Coal 2.8%, Brent Crude 3%, Baltic Dry Index 15.8%, WTI Crude Oil 2.2%, Palm Oil 2.8%, Copper 9%, Heating Oil 3.3%, Cattle 3.8%, LNG in Yen 4.9%, Newcastle Coal 3.8%, Orange Juice 31.5%, Palladium 11.8%, Platinum 6.4%, Gasoline 3.2%, Sugar #16 4.1%, Rubber 1.7%, Dutch TTF Gas 5.8%, Urea (U.S. Gulf) 3.6%, Gasoil 5.4%, Urea Middle East 5.7%, Silver AUD 3.6%, Silver USD 4%, Gold in GBP 1.7%, Gold in ZAR 2.6%, ATX 2.3%, CAC 1.7%, IDX 2.7%, DAX 2%, KSE 1.8%, KOSPI 4%, STI 1.9%, Vietnam 5.1% and XBI Biotechs rose 2.1%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Aluminium (1.5%), North European Hot Rolled Steel (3.3%), Lithium Hydroxide (1.8%), Natural Gas (2.8%), Robusta (12.5%), Uranium (6.8%), Corm (5.8%), Oats (4.9%), Soybean (4%), Wheat (2.1%), Mexico (2.4%) and the BOVESPA fell 3.6%.

July 12, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au