Reviewing last quarter’s Macro Extremes moments

Each Sunday I publish a note titled ‘Macro Extremes’ which observes and notes prices of various assets or markets trading at the extended part of their ‘pendulum’ for the week that just ended.

Here is a review of some selected price action of those appearing in the publication over the past couple months.

On December 19, 2023, the British 10 year bond yields were at their lowest since May 2023. They have since moved from 3.50% to 3.92%.

The October 22, 2023 edition saw Mexico’s IPC equity index register a ‘quinella’ of oversold readings when it was at 47,800 points. By December 20th, it rallied (21%) to 58,000 points when it reached an overbought quinella.

That same edition mentioned the extreme oversold of the Nasdaq Biotech Index when it was trading around the 3,650 point mark. 3 weeks ago, its was overbought when it hit 4,430 points, which is a stupendous 21% run within 9 weeks.

A week later, the ASX Industrials Index triggered its own oversold quinella at 6,150 points. it soon lifted (12%) to 6,900 points by New Years Day.

And the October 6, 2023 edition warned to not chase the overbought Orange Juice price which was then trading at $3.90. Its current price is $3.08.

The next edition of Macro Extremes is published tomorrow.

January 20, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au