A different yield curve to watch

When the spread (or yield curve) of the U.S. 5 year government bond yield <minus> 3 month yield is overbought on a Weekly RSI, it closely (and tactically) signals a peak in the S&P 500.

The S&P 500 is not a peak at the moment. Buyers of put options and callers of an equity crash perhaps take note!

There were two exceptions in 2013 when this wasn’t the case. I’ll look into this a little later.

Incidentally, an Oversold yield curve isn’t an inversely reliable timing indicator.

September 11, 2022

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: