Alcoa wipes 50% quickly

Only 20 days ago, I wrote this note reiterating my mean reversion theme and I chose the Alcoa stock price as only one example.

I didn’t expect the $55 price target to be seen so soon.

Alcoa has now retraced 50% of the (somewhat parabolic) advance since October 2020.

Investing (in general) involves probability and mathematics.

In conjunction with my other indicators, today I’ll assign a certain probability that Alcoa’s stock price visits the next stop of $44.

In the meantime, the current risk, valuation, sentiment and pricing prompts me to accumulate some Alcoa around this $54-$55 mark.

May 10, 2022

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au