Japanese investment opportunities

My bullet points and thoughts include:

  • Minimise and balance the “noise” about Japan.
  • When investing in Japan, perspective required between Japan’s national debt and macro fiscal problems and individual companies that are domiciled there.
  • Always analyse the business in its own right and remain true on knowing the business and not speculate.
  • Too early to jump into Japanese ideas, mainly because we aren’t sure about the accuracy of various info.
  • Only interested buying if there is big discount to the net assets.
  • Businesses such as mobile telco, NTT DoCoMo (9437 JP) has always been a good free cash flow and valuation idea, that could become very attractive if we see further market declines.
  • Global brands such as Shimano, Daiwa, Yakult, Kikkoman and Toyota could be interesting buying if further declines are seen.
  • While Tokyo Electric share price (owner of the Fukoshima nuclear power plant) has dropped 46% in price in 2 days and is trading at same price seen in 1984, it doesn’t appear cheap enough due to the debt that it carries.
  • Fukoshima accounts for 10% of its power generation capabilities – beyond balance sheet risk, concerns similar to BP when oil rig sunk in Gulf of Mexico is liability and insurance.
  • In fact, alternative opportunities may appear in uranium stocks in Australia or Canada or even nuclear power generation businesses in Europe or the United States such as E.On, Fortum, EDF or Excelon.

Does such a disaster actually kickstart Japan out of 20 years of stagnation?

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