I want to buy Uranium, 27% cheaper

April 10, 2024 Leave a comment

#Uranium prices were recently basking in adulation.

As expected, that noise was occurring at recent ‘overbought’ extremes.

#U308 prices have declined since then……

while I remain a constructive longer term bull on the topic…..

I’ll look to add to uranium price “trackers” such as the #Sprott Physical Uranium Trust at C$20.50 and Yellow Cake plc at 450p

Their prices at the time of writing are C$28.43 and 616p respectively.

Uncannily, my suggest entry prices are approximately 27% below today’s.

April 9, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Reading the Uranium tape

March 18, 2024 Leave a comment

Uranium prices have declined for 6 consecutive weeks. These streaks usually end at 6, 7 or 8 weeks.

The 22% decline over the past 6 weeks has nearly retraced 50% of the advance which commenced in July 2023.

I think we’ll see some weakness this week followed by a pause of the recent decline. Maybe a bounce but I think the shake out of the later coming, long buyers isn’t done.

So, I expect a greater mean reversion before seeing another and safer moment to deploy capital to the larger structural #uranium bullish theme.

March 18, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

Karri Asset Advisors

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Looking for lower entry points in Uranium

February 22, 2024 Leave a comment

Long time readers of my blog would confirm that I have had a structural bullish view on #uranium for some years.

For now (at least 3 or 4 weeks ago) the collective uranium basket is full.

If I could express what I think is next, through the NYSE listed share price of #Cameco, I’ll await for CCJ.N to come back to the $27-$30 mark somewhere in the May-July 2024 timeframe before adding some more.

February 23, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Fact and fantasy in uranium

February 9, 2024 Leave a comment

I like the structural uranium deficit theme for some 3 years but in this note I want to highlight the dislocation between the stock price of Kazatomprom, the price of uranium and the media/pundit noise.

Kazatomprom’s stock price is back to the same price seen in September 2023.

February 9, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Uranium price have 40% downside risk

November 30, 2023 Leave a comment

The euphoria behind Uranium prices are back (following a 16 year absence).

I’d be wary.

The chart below shows my simple read of the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust.

My notations partly cite where you would’ve captured the ‘fat part’ of the trade.

But I see the price of this security (trust) and equally the price of Uranium at risk of declining 40% from today’s price.

More interestingly is that I don’t think I’ll find anyone who’d agree with me.

November 30, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Uranium price pondering’s

October 24, 2022 Leave a comment

I think that the price of Uranium is currently in a blow-off top.

From today’s price of $52.70, it reaching $61-$64 is plausible.

However, assigning probability to an additional surge is difficult.

In other words, I’m not considering initiating a new long trade in Uranium futures.

It’s current price which is parabolic in shape, is also stratospheric by many measures.

It is Overbought on a weekly basis and on a monthly timeframe. The latter seldom occurs.

Furthermore, Uranium is trading at a stretched percentage (95%) above its 200 week moving average.

Commodity prices start entering rarified air whenever they venture 40% above this measure.

My trend analysis confirms Uranium’s bullish direction and it is garnering some strength. 

This suggests that momentum will send prices higher before it peaks.

To be clear, current ‘longs’ in uranium will get to have a little more of their (yellow) cake, but it is a riskier proposition for those thinking about initiating new positions at $53.

I think the price of uranium is prone for some mean reversion back to the $34 – $38 mark, perhaps occurring into January 2023.

October 24, 2022

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au  

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Take your pick – Thorium or Uranium

July 28, 2021 Leave a comment

While I have hinted that I am bullish on nuclear energy and uranium……I have been an avid watcher of thorium which has been seen as a nascent alternative but in truth it has existed for some time. Its evolution has been retarded for a host of political and capitalist reasons.

An extract from this article says, “China has some of the world’s largest reserves of thorium, a silvery metal with weak radioactivity. By some calculations it has enough to meet the country’s energy needs for at least 20,000 years. By contrast, China has some of the lowest uranium reserves of any nuclear-capable country”.

https://www.neimagazine.com/news/newschina-moves-forward-with-thorium-molten-salt-reactor-8919220

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