Form a view, reporting it doesn’t help

The Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 Index have risen 10% over the past 2 or 3 weeks.

Media reports simply reporting this adds little value.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-24/enjoy-the-rally-while-it-lasts-is-china-stock-traders-new-mantra?sref=qLOW1ygh

My subjective observation of recent pessimism along with my empirical analysis lead to my weekend publication, “Macro Extremes” listing these indices in the ‘extreme oversold’ category in the few weeks prior to this ‘reported’ news.

While this rebound is encouraging, it should be treated as a ‘trade’ for now. This means I expect a small pullback. Some ‘sideways’ travel and consolidation would also be constructive for China’s equity indices.

A couple weeks ago, I highlighted 7 moments (in a private note) when the CSI 300 provided an entry point which pointed to reasonably probability of a trading bounce.

Today’s situation is also labelled as one of those.

February 25, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Screenshot

Can China change from being ‘uninvestible’ ?

When they say China (equities) is ‘uninvestible’…..the monthly chart covering the past 20 years illustrates the case.

Tradable, sure, although hardly investible….

While the chart of India’s SENSEX Index shows you what an investible equities market looks like.

But uninvestible can change.

December 18, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

It’s not me, it’s always them

Let’s blame Greece for a swoon in Aussie equities.

Now that the Shanghai stockmarket has declined 20%, let’s blame them too.

China is trying to stimulate their economy. Yep, that’s another thing to pick on.

Hang-on, isn’t Australia also cutting rates? Aren’t we in a monetary easing phase too?

Perhaps other countries should blame us for doing something as preposterous as cutting rates and weakening our currency.

When the Chinese equities market doubled in the past year, we should have blamed them too, ‘cause the Aussie market didn’t follow.

Greece’s woes has nothing to do with the decline in the shares of an Australian company such as Boral, Computershare or Alumina.

Australia needs to looks at itself before blaming others for its stockmarket gyrations. It has a high cost labour force, high taxes, internationally uncompetitive manufacturing, higher cost of money and a high cost of living.

Subjectively, our politics of late, hasn’t exactly been clear, stable and welcoming either.

We’ve not had an economic recession for 23 years and we’re still not happy. Always ready to blame somebody else.

Forget the blaming of the other countries. Many of them are performing much better than Australia’s. Our hubris has not prepared us for the reversion that the Australian economy will suffer during the next cycle.