Knowing when you’re pushing oil barrels uphill

October 6, 2023 Leave a comment

The study below shows the percentage that the WTI Crude Oil price was trading above its 200 week moving average.

When combined with my other studies and metrics, (albeit I couldn’t predict this week’s 10% decline) the probability of the oil price embarking on an extended advance was waning.

More so (subjectively observed), when the financial media noise increased surrounding the various analysts saying $100 was inevitable.

This coincides with my note written 2 weeks earlier.

Selected Oil stocks are full

The high was $95, it is now $82, may see you at $73.10.

Better yet, we may see much cheaper shares in energy companies.

October 6, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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A Picture Of Crude Oil Reserves Tell Me A Thousand Words

May 26, 2020 Leave a comment

What is this Crude Oil Reserves graphic saying to me?
It tells me that Australia is a minnow and it’s more of a LNG nation.
It tells me why integrated European and American oil companies enter joint ventures in foreign lands, ’cause that’s where the oil is.
And the U.S. is playing an interesting game of being the worlds largest oil producer against reserves that don’t suggest that status being sustainable.
Prior to the March 2020 collapse in oil prices, the U.S. was pumping a world leading 15 million barrels per day.
If the U.S. reduces daily production to let’s say 12 million barrels (not because Trump thinks he can force privatised companies to do so but more so relating to the global supply glut), then when dividend into their reserves of 37 Giga barrels, the United States will have 3,083 days or 8.4 years of reserves left.
That’s acute enough to create tension across politics and the oil price.
Incidentally, Saudi’s daily production is 12 million barrels.
– May 26, 2020, by Rob Zdravevski
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