some scenarios about Lend Lease

Whilst I acquaint myself with the numbers and the fundamental business of ‘beleaguered’ Australian property development company, Lend Lease (LLC.ASX)…….the decline in the stock price has been merciless.

Lend Lease’s current stock price is A$6.04

18 months prior, there were some other anecdotal concerns about the company which crossed my desk.

But the recent declining ‘wave’ (since August 2023) where the stock price has fallen 30% has seen 420 million shares traded, which equals 62% of its free floating shares on issue.

Subjectively, when 60%+ of the company’s shares have turned over, within a certain period, I start think that the last ‘hold-out’ has folded and thrown in their hand.

For some initial sport, I think this stock may trade down to the $5.20 – $5.70 range.

Alternatively, I think a ‘consortia’ will appear with a bid to buy the whole business at $5.60 per share, making it a ‘take-under’ from today’s price.

Not all acquisitions occur at a premium price.

But perhaps I may conclude that it’s better to own the debt rather than the equity….should I come to any decision at all.

February 23, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au