Trying to hear what's not being said
April 7, 2025 Leave a comment
Anatomy of a trade in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI).
It doesn’t matter to me that this index has fallen 12% today.
I think it has 16% more to fall.
April 7, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
February 18, 2025 Leave a comment
It’s often noisiest at the extremes.
For Chinese and Hong Kong markets, the extreme pendulum suggests selling or reducing rather than buying.
February 18, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
May 3, 2024 Leave a comment
In the short-term, I think the rally in Chinese equity indices is one to ‘rent’, rather than ‘own’.
And I see particular nuances across the 15% – 20% advance seen in the CSI 300 and the #China A50 to the 30% rise in the HSCEI.
It’s been a constructive effort building a new base, however the current trends are not (yet) all exhibiting strength.
I’m anticipating a near-term moment to scalp some returns. Later, I expect an opportunity to accumulate at lower levels.
In this week’s edition of Macro Extremes, the HSCEI will appear in an Overbought ‘extreme’ category.
Inversely, the study below shows the moments when the CSI 300 (in Macro Extremes) was Oversold.
May 3, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
rob zdravevski's blog 