Trying to hear what's not being said
April 2, 2024 Leave a comment
We are starting to reduce allocation to Spanish equities.
Our various measures tell us that #Spain‘s #IBEX index at 11,075 points is “full” and approaching the latter part of its advance and so probability suggests that the ‘fat part of the trade’ has been seen.
Hemos visto la parte suficiente del comercio.
April 2, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
Karri Asset Advisors
rob@karriasset.com.au
#Espana
September 2, 2023 Leave a comment
Spanish inflation was in the news this past week, reporting a rise from July’s 2.1% reading to 2.4% for the month of August 2023.
However, the main story of the Spanish inflation rate appears in the first chart below.
Mean reversion beckoned, especially following parabolic price moves.
The second chart shows the Spanish 2 year government bond yield compared to the same inflation rate.
The ‘stubbornness’ of the bond yield (in orange) holding up at 3.42% tells me that inflation move back higher.
I’ll watch for the 4.5% region as the first stop.
September 2, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
April 21, 2023 Leave a comment
Since its October 2022 low, Spain’s IBEX 35 equity index has risen 31%. This index doesn’t contain any of the world’s technology giants.
The Nasdaq 100 has climbed 24% over the same time.
More interestingly, this week the IBEX made a new ‘higher high’.
Higher than its recent March ’22 high and its higher than any peak seen in 2022 or 2021.
Probability is increasing that its sees a run up to the 10,100 mark (+/- 100 points) which is a further 7% higher than today….
but keep in mind that the IBEX is at the tail end of this current advance.
IBEX at 10,100 would equal its February 2020 high and would see the index trading at some longer-term overbought extremes.
April 21, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
rob zdravevski's blog 