Trying to hear what's not being said
February 18, 2025 Leave a comment
It’s often noisiest at the extremes.
For Chinese and Hong Kong markets, the extreme pendulum suggests selling or reducing rather than buying.
February 18, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
October 5, 2024 Leave a comment
I have now exited all (except for one) Chinese related equities.
Years ago, when equity markets were in the doldrums, I would hear people tell me how they would gladly accept a 7% return in a given year.
Over the past 3 weeks, some Chinese/HK stocks and indices have risen 30%.
I bet if many or any caught one-third of that gain, they wouldn’t pack up for the next 12 months and stay away from the markets…….
May 3, 2024 Leave a comment
In the short-term, I think the rally in Chinese equity indices is one to ‘rent’, rather than ‘own’.
And I see particular nuances across the 15% – 20% advance seen in the CSI 300 and the #China A50 to the 30% rise in the HSCEI.
It’s been a constructive effort building a new base, however the current trends are not (yet) all exhibiting strength.
I’m anticipating a near-term moment to scalp some returns. Later, I expect an opportunity to accumulate at lower levels.
In this week’s edition of Macro Extremes, the HSCEI will appear in an Overbought ‘extreme’ category.
Inversely, the study below shows the moments when the CSI 300 (in Macro Extremes) was Oversold.
May 3, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 1, 2024 Leave a comment
I am not ‘worried’ about the Chinese property market The damage has been done and if you happened to be concerned, then don’t own equities in any associated property developers, banks or construction companies.
In fact, that malaise may provide better investing opportunity than the fully priced markets.
I’d be more concerned about Australian property sector.,
Australians households hold nearly twice the debt as a percentage of GDP (112%) than Chinese households (62%).
Source: IMF
Furthermore, Chinese households have 34% of their total household disposable income as household savings.
Australians are at 13% as are the Americans. The Canadians are at 6% while the Brits have kept 2% of their disposable income in the form of savings.
Source: OECD
March 1, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
Image source: IMF
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