Macro Extremes (week ending August 15, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

EU, French, Indian and Dutch 10 year government bond yields 

Egypt’s EGX 30 equity index *

FCATC Index

Malaysia’s KLSE

And Australia’s ASX Materials Index

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

Cattle *

Urea (Middle East) prices *

Shanghai Composite Index *

Austria’s ATX Index

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Spain’s IBEX *

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

South Korea’s KOSPI *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices

Canada’s TSX *

Vietnam’s VN Index *

The ASX 200 

And the ASX Small Cap Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

None 

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Belgian 10 year government bond yield

Lumber

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Russian 10 year government bond yield *

Lithium Hydroxide *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields were mixed,

Turkish 10 year and Chilean 2 year yields are in 4 week declining streaks. 

Indian 10’s have climbed for 6 weeks.

Russian 10 year bonds yield has fallen for 13 straight weeks.

Equities rose, everywhere, adding to last week’s beefy advances.

U.S. biotechs, transports, small and mid caps were amongst the better performers.

Austria’s ATX, Malaysia’s KLSE, the FTSE China FCTAC and a few Australian equity indices join many other indices are in overbought territory.

Egypt fell and broke a 6 week winning streak.

Czechia’s main indices have risen for 7 weeks straight.

Karachi & Bangkok have put together 8 week winning streaks.

Istanbul’s winning run stopped at 7 weeks.

The Nikkei 225 is a hair away from registering an overbought reading.

Indonesia’s IDX has climber 34% since its oversold quinella seen in March 2025.

While the Sensex and Nifty rose and broke their 6 week losing streak.

Commodities were mixed, again.

Palm Oil, Coffee, Lithium, Orange Juice and Soybeans Cocoa were the notable gainers.

Coal, Lumber, Gases, Oil and Distillates dominated the losers category.

The big news is that Lithium Carbonate rose enough for it to end its 98 week stay in oversold territory.

Palladium has declined 15% in the past 4 weeks, since registering an overbought quinella.

Cattle prices are in a 8 week winning streak.

Heating Oil, Wheat, Palladium, Gasoil and Henry Hub Natural Gas are in 4 week losing streaks. 

Oats and U.S. Hot Rolled Coil Steel have fallen for 6 weeks.

Arabica and Robusta Coffee have soared 20% and 25% respectively over the past fortnight. 

And Lumber prices have sunken 13% over the past 2 weeks.

Currencies were subdued.

The Aussie and Loonie were weaker.

Swissie and Pound Sterling rose.

The USD was mostly weaker. 

As the BRL/USD has risen for 4 straight weeks.

The Yen fell to mimic the continued ‘risk-on’ mood,

And the U.S. Dollar is in a 7 week rising streak versus the Indian Rupee.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Cocoa 3.7%, Palm Oil 5.1%, Arabica Coffee 10.5%, Cattle 2.1%, Lithium Carbonate 5%, Lithium Hydroxide 4.6%, Orange Juice 4.8%, Robusta Coffee 18%, Urea Middle East 2%, Uranium 1.5%, Soybeans 5.6%, Shanghai Composite 1.7%, CSI 300 2.4%, All World Developed (ex USA) 1.9%, ATX 2.7%, CAC 2.3%, China A50 2%, IDX 4.8%, DJ Industrials 1.7%, DJ Transports 2.1%, FCATC 3.9%, MIB 2.5%, HSCEI 1.6%, Hang Seng 1.7%, IBB 5.1%, IBEX 3.1%, S&P SmallCap 600 3.2%, Russell 3.1%, Nasdaq Composite 0.8%, KRE Regional Banks 3.4%, S&P MidCap 400 1.6%, NBI 5%, Nikkei 225 3.7%, Stockholm 1.5%, PX 1.6%, SMI 1.8%, IGPA 2.5%, S&P 500 0.9%, IPSA 2.6%, Nasdaq Transports 4.3%, Vietnam 2.8%, XBI 6.2%, ASX 200 1.5% and the ASX Materials Index rose 3.7%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Australian Coking Coal (3.2%), Richards Bay Coal (2%), WTI Crude Oil (1.7%), EHR Steel (1.4%), Heating Oil (2.3%), JKM LNG (4.3%), Lumber (6.6%), JKM LNG in Yen (3.1%), Newcastle Coal (4.5%), Natural Gas (2.5%), Palladium (2.2%), Dutch TTF Gas (4.4%), Gasoil (2.1%), Gold in AUD (1.6%), Gold in CHF (2%), Gold in EUR (2.4%), Gold in GBP (2.6%), Gold in USD (1.9%), Oats (1.5%) and Wheat fell 1.6%.

August 17, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au