Is it late at the party?
May 15, 2024 Leave a comment
Within the S&P 500 party, it may be 11pm or perhaps midnight but its not 3am
#spx
May 15, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
Germany – from stinky to overloved
March 20, 2024 Leave a comment
For the 8th time in the past 12 years, #Germany‘s DAX Index is registering a weekly overbought reading.
While there is more behind my analysis, this simple study shows that probabilities of a further advance change at this juncture.
Following such an occurrence, we mostly see the #DAX trade sideways, if not lower, for up to 24 months hence.
It’s not a time to chase.
That country #allocation trade began about 20 months in mid-2022.
50% ago.
This note listed that observation.
While the DAX is currently within its 7th consecutive week of higher prices and myopically, it looks like having a little more upside, the ‘fat part of the trade’ has been seen.
March 20, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
Karri Asset Advisors
rob@karriasset.com.au
The peril of market cap weighted ETF’s
January 4, 2024 Leave a comment
The top 10 Australian stocks (as per market capitalisation) account for 47% of the weighting in the ASX 200 equity index.
The other 190 stocks make up the remaining 53%.
Loosely put another way, 11 cents of every $1 invested in an ASX 200 index strategy (think monthly superannuation contributions) goes towards buying BHP stock. Then a further 8 cents of each $1 buys CBA shares, another 6 cents is spent on buying CSL and 4 more cents acquires shares in National Australia Bank.
There you have the top 4 stocks making up 29% of the ASX 200.
Much has been mentioned about the top 10 U.S. stocks adding up to 30% of the S&P 500 market weighting.
There is much peril in market capitalisation weighted indices (and their #etfs).
In the absence of seeking a bargain let alone considering prevailing valuations nor conducting any analysis, many investors are showing fiscal complacency by hiding in large caps stocks and convincing themselves about the safety of ‘blue chips’.
There are other places to allocate equity monies.
January 4, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
rob zdravevski's blog 