Rio Tinto’s writedown is an example of Management Risk

I appreciate the operational leverage and potential returns that a company can provide its shareholders but last week’s news of Rio Tinto $14 billion writedown on its assets illustrates the handicaps that a company’s management can provide.

The result of such an announcement is that the CEO merely resigns.

Two years ago, bets were made in acquiring a coal business for $4 billion and today its value has been written down by $3 billion. Three-quarters of this coal business has been lost in 2 years, which is yet another example of company executives making large acquisitions in order to grow their business, with shareholders money.

When playing with large sums of company money, there is no downside for these executives other than losing their jobs, but their reward is large, financially and for their own personal career and resume improvement.

For these poor operational and investment decisions, management is paid very well. In Rio’s outgoing CEO’s case he also provided shareholders with a total share performance return of 2.5% during his 6 year tenure.

In Rio Tinto’s case, financial analysts are now speculating that it may embark on a $2-$4 billion share buyback to “make up for the losses”.

Rather than investing in its existing businesses, increasing its dividend payout or sheepishly attempt another equity destroying takeover, Rio Tinto could buyback its own shares, which in turn will improve the “Earnings Per Share” metric which hopefully is a benchmark that executives have their compensation incentives tied to.

World Economic Outlook – IMF – Oct ’12

Lazy Corporate Monopolies Are Why America Can’t Have Nice Things « naked capitalism

The attached link is an interesting post that appeared on the Naked Capitalism blog.

Lazy Corporate Monopolies Are Why America Can’t Have Nice Things « naked capitalism.

David Tepper interview – Dec 2012

Below is a link to an interview broken into 3 parts on the CNBC website featuring hedge fund manager, David Tepper.

If you really, really listen, he’ll tell you a lot about investing

 

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000134410

Contrarian Snippets

As a contrarian investor, some of my recent observations of sentiment and price include:

  • Australian Small Cap Resources Index is trading at levels seen 4 years ago
  • Gold doesn’t seem as popular
  • Uranium and Coal remain unloved
  • Investors are upset that their cash deposits are earning so little but they are buying plenty of bonds.
  • S&P 500 is touted as being expensive because it’s trading at 1,430
  • Retail, Airlines and Media equities are out of favour
  • China is apparently heading for a melt-down and the Shanghai Composite Index trades at the same level as 2008

Own that which has little supply

When investing, I think there is merit in understanding what has great demand but perhaps more importantly, where there is ample or excess supply.

Some of my recent thinking on this topic has moved away from commodities but into financial securities or instruments.

If the world has so much government debt on issue, why would you want to own something that is so abundant? Yet bonds are being bought and sought and prices continue to rise.

Inversely, the supply of equities continue to shrink, driven by mergers, stock consolidation, lack of new issues and growing amounts of share buy-backs.

The growth of share buy-backs has been occurring by stealth. Many companies are choosing to buy their own shares back with their excess cash, for reasons that I can’t see as positive.

Perhaps this means management from a particular company can’t find appropriate investments or they are cautious about deploying more capital into their existing business, but either way, it improves a company’s “earnings per share” data. This in turn helps executives meet share performance data tied into their compensation.

In fact, with money so cheap, it’s actually accretive to borrow money and buy your shares back.

Putting manipulation aside, there is a shrinking supply of equity and especially in Australia where the amount of amount of excellent companies with high quality of earnings are diminishing.

This is a positive, for that huge pool of superannuation money in Australia will only ever invest within its own shores.

 

The Protest Vote Is Over

Make Our Votes Fair

Make Our Votes Fair (Photo credit: cliffjamester)

2012 has been a big year for elections around the world, especially amongst G-20 countries.

It seemed that the first half of 2012 saw a rise in a “protest vote” against the incumbent leader for reasons that may have included a disapproval of how politicians reacted to the effect of the global financial crisis and an emotional spillover from citizen uprisings such as the ones seen in the Arab world.

Voters decided that “they’ll show ’em” by voting for the opposition, as we saw in Spain & France but their citizens haven’t seen any improvement to their woes.

The shift that I noticed in the 2nd half of 2012 was to re-elect the devil that one already knows, as seen in Mexico, Venezuela & the U.S.A.

If this trend continues, it’ll bode well for the re-election chances of Julia Gillard & David Cameron.

Iron Ore prices rise 33%

Did you know that over the past 6 weeks, the spot price of Iron Ore has risen 33% back to $120 per tonne?

Some investors may not believe this as they are still anchored to the bad news they saw last month with headlines such as ‘Iron Ore Prices Plummet”.

Credit to London’s Financial Times who did report the positive news this week.

source: Bloomberg

 

 

 

 

Increase supply means lower oil prices

The increasing supply of oil and natural gas needs to translate into lower energy prices at the consumer level, in order for any cyclical upturn in economic activity and asset prices. I’m not sure how much of the current price factors in the Syrian rebellion and Iranian sanctions but it’s difficult to believe that Brent is trading at $115 considering all of the persistent weak economic news.

It would advisable for producers of thick tar sand oil (such as Canada and Venezuela) to ramp up extraction before it becomes uneconomic. With Chavez’s recent re-election and PSVDA’s recent disruptions, along with Canada’s trade deficit under pressure due to falling metal commodity prices it is plausible that this will happen.

Further to a recent post where I refer to lower oil prices into the end of the decade, below is an extract of a news story sourced from Bloomberg referencing recent comments from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

“The IEA suggests oil demand is basically going to be unchanged and that’s not going to lend support to the market,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy inStamford, Connecticut. “The more-than-ample supply we have here is preventing oil from breaking off.”

The Paris-based agency also said global markets will become better supplied in the next five years as demand growth slows and production rises in North America and the Middle East.

Worldwide fuel consumption is projected to rise to 95.7 million barrels a day in 2017 from 89 million last year, the IEA said. Output is forecast to advance about 1.5 million barrels a day each year to 102 million barrels a day in the same period.

I hope you enjoy this interesting blog from an old friend, Mr Les Hayman.

leshayman's avatarLes Hayman's Blog

The dictionary defines an entrepreneur as “A person who takes direct responsibility for turning an idea into a profitable finished product through assertive risk-taking and innovation”.

It then defines an intrepreneur as “”A person within a large corporation who takes direct responsibility for turning an idea into a profitable finished product through assertive risk-taking and innovation”.

But it’s not that simple.

Firstly, I do not believe that all entrepreneurs are necessarily “assertive risk takers” as the dictionary definition suggests. I accept that some are, and they will risk everything on the throw of a single die, but I believe that these are actually in the minority. Most entrepreneurs I have met are really quite risk averse, in that they will only take the risks that are necessary to create and maintain their business, but only to an acceptable level, and they will also understand when to call it quits. Some…

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