Macro Extremes (week ending April 10, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

10-year Swiss and Indian government bond yields. *

U.S. 5 & 7 year government bond yields.

Cotton

XBI Biotech ETF

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

2-year Australian, German and Japanese government bond yields

5 & 10-year Japanese bond yields

Heating Oil *

JKM LNG in USD *

Gasoline *

CRB Index *

Gasoil

Urea (U.S, Gulf and Middle East) *

AUD/CAD

AUD/IDR

AUD/JPY

CNH/USD *

BUX Index

BOVESPA *

TAIEX

OBX *

Thailand’s SET

Tel Aviv 35 Index

And Poland’s WIG Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Philadelphia’s SOX Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

U.S. 10-year minus German 10-year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10-year minus U.S. 5-year bond yield spread *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Australian 10-year minus Aussie 2-year bond yield spread *

Cocoa *

JPY/AUD

NZD/AUD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields fell, again.

A few more bond yields dropped off the list.

Also declining where U.S. corporate yields along with the MOVE Index and the U.S. 5 year inflation break-even spreads.

The Japanese 10’s have climbed for 6 weeks.

And the U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread is now oversold.

Equities had a terrific week, recouping recent declines.

China’s FCTAC, the NIFTY, SENSEX, ASX Financials and the Nikkei 225 rose and snapped their losing streaks which spanned 5, 6 or 7 weeks.

Thailand’s SET Index has closed higher for 4 straight weeks.

The FTSE Saudi and Tadawul indices have risen for 6 weeks.

While Norway’s OBX fell and broke their 10 weeks of consecutive advance.

Commodities were mixed with a positive bias.

Cotton, Copper, Platinum, Urea and Silver were the notable gainers.

Coal, Gases, Distillates, Wheat, Corn and Sugar were amongst the decliners.

Many energy contracts left overbought territory.

Richards Bay and Rotterdam Coal have fallen for 8 weeks.

Cotton and Cattle have risen for 5 weeks.

Middle Eastern Urea have closed higher for 8 weeks straight.

Many other commodity contracts and indices such as WTI Crude, CRB Index and Gasoil fell and snapped 7 week winning streaks.

And U,S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 18 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were busy.

The Aussie rose again which is commensurate with the risk-on sentiment seen in equities.

The CAD fell again with the CAD/EUR falling for 4 weeks.

The British Pound was mixed.

Euro was firmer.

BRL/USD and EUR/CAD have climbed for 4 weeks.

COP/USD and EUR/CHF have risen for 5 weeks.

And the USD was weaker.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Baltic Dry Index 6.5%, Cotton 3.2%, Copper 5.4%, Palladium 2.2%, Platinum 4.1%, Tin 3.3%, Middle East Urea 6%, Silver 4%, Gold in USD 1.5%, Shanghai 2.7%, CSI 300 4%, All World Developed ex USA 4.8%, AEX 3.5%, KBW Banks 5.6%, BUX 7.2%, CAC 3.7%, China A50 3.7%, IDX 6.1%, DAX 2.7%, DJ Industrials 3.1%, DJ Transports 6.6%, EGX 5.8%, FCATC 6.4%, MIB 4.4%, HSCEI 2.3%, Hang Seng 3.1%, IBEX 3.7%, BOVESPA 4.9%, S&P Small Cap 600 3.8%, Russell 2000 4%, TAIEX 8.7%, Nasdaq Composite 4.7%, KRE Regional Banks 4.5%, KSE 11.2%, KOSPI 9%, FTSE 250 3.3%, Nasdaq 100 4.5%, Nasdaq Composite 4.5%, Nikkei 225 7.2%, NIFTY 5.9%, Copenhagen 2.7%, Helsinki 3.6%, Stockholm 4.9%, PSE 1.7%, PX 4.5%, SA40 2.7%, SENSEX 5.8%, SET 3.6%, SMI 1.6%, SOX 13.5%, S&P 500 3.6%, IPSA 3.1%, TA35 6.1%, Nasdaq Transports 4.5%, TSX 1.8%, FTSE 100 1.6%, BIST 8.8%, DFM 4.2%, Vietnam 3.9%, WIG 4.5%, ASX Financials 6.6%, ASX 200 4.4%, ASX Materials 6.2%, ASX Industrials 2.6% and the ASX Small Caps rose 4.5%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Australian Coking Coal (4.3%), Richards Bay Coal (4.2%), Rotterdam Coal (7.2%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (3.7%), Brent Crude Oil (12.7%), WTI Crude Oil (13.4%), Palm Oil (6.2%), Heating Oil (13.8%), JKM LNG (2.7%), Lumber (3.5%), LNG in Yen (6.7%), Newcastle Coal (6.8%), Natural Gas (5.4%), Gasoline (7.6%), Robusta (3.6%), Sugar (8.3%), S&P GSCI (8.7%), CRB Index (3.1%), Dutch TTF Gas (12.8%), Gasoil (12.9%), Gold in ZAR (1.8%), Corn (2.5%), Oats (3.8%), Rice (3.9%) and Wheat fell 4.6%.

April 12, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au