Macro Extremes (week ending March 13, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Austria, Brazilian, Swiss, Czech, Spanish, British, Greek, Indonesian, Italian, Norwegian, Polish and Portuguese 10-year government bond yields.

2 & 3 year British and U.S. government bond yields.

British 5 year bond yield

U.S. 5-7 year Investment Grade, High Yield and BB Rated yields

Palm Oil

Corn

Wheat *

AUD/CHF

AUD/ZAR

CAD/EUR

CAD/GBP

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Australian 2- & 3-year government bond yield.

Japanese 2, 5 and 10 year bond yields.

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Gold in CHF, EUR, GBP and ZAR *

AUD/GBP *

AUD/IDR *

AUD/JPY *

AUD/SGD *

CNH/USD *

TAEIX *

OBX *

TA 35 Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

2-year German and Italian bond yields

Richards Bay Coal *

Aluminium *

Rotterdam Coal *

Bloomberg Commodity Index *

Brent Crude Oil *

WTI Crude Oil *

Heating Oil *

North American Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

JKM LNG in USD and Yen *

Newcastle Coal *

Gasoline *

S&P GSCI Index *

CRB Index *

Dutch TTF Gas *

Urea (U.S, Gulf and Middle East) *

Gasoil *

Oats *

Soybeans

AUD/EUR *

AUD/THB *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

CHF/AUD

KRW/USD

IDX Composite *

HSCEI *

Hang Seng *

Pakistan’s KSE

ASX Industrials

UAE’s DFM Index

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Australian 10 year minus Aussie 2-year yield spread *

London and CME Cocoa *

Sugar #16 *

EUR/CHF *

GBP/AUD *

INR/USD

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

NZD/AUD *

NIFTY

SENSEX

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields rose, again.

A host of new 10 year government bond yields joined the overbought list.

Some U.S. and EU yields are also members of this week’s edition.

And Chilean 2 year yields have risen for  weeks.

Equities continued their decline.

Only few appear in the group of advancers.

Norway’s OBX has risen for 7 weeks.

Indonesia’s IDX Composite man reverted having fallen 23% over the past 7 weeks.

The Dow Jones Transports is 10% lower over the past fortnight.

Dubai’s DFM Index has fallen 18% over the same time.

India’s NIFTY is at its lowest close since early April 2025

And some Hong Kong indices are oversold.

Commodities were mixed.

Oils, Distillates Palm Oil, Orange Juice, Oats, Soybeans and Sugar were the notable gainers. 

Coal, Coffee, Platinum, Palladium, Tin and Silver were amongst the decliners.

Gold in some currencies are no longer overbought.

Aluminium, Brent Crude, Heating Oil, WTI Crude, JKM LNG, Gasoline, CRB Index and Middle Eastern Urea have closed higher for 4 weeks straight.

Sugar #16 is in a 5 week winning streak.

Soybeans have climbed for 6 weeks.

U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 14 consecutive weeks.

And Copper is at its lowest weekly close since December 29, 2025.

Currencies were busy.

The Aussie rose and AUD pairs still feature amongst the extremes.

AUD/EUR in a12 week rising streak.

The Loonie was firmer.

The Swissie fell.

And the Yen was mixed.

CAD/JPY has climbed for 4 weeks.

While the Colombian Peso has declined for 4 weeks against the USD.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Australian Coking Coal 4.5%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 2.6%, Brent Crude 11.3%, Cocoa 2.1%, WTI Crude 8.6%, Cotton 2.6%, DXY Index 1.7%, Palm Oil 4.7%, Heating Oil 10.8%, JKM LNG 2.1%, Lumber 1.5%, Orange Juice 10.6%, Gasoline 10.7%, Sugar 1.9%, Sugar #16 2.7%, CRB Index 3.9%, Urea U.S. Gulf 3.4%, Gasoil 2.4%, Corn 1.5%, Oats 10.3%, Soybeans 2%, AEX 2.2%, China A50 2.1%, OBX 2.2%, SOX 1.8%, IGPA 1.6% and BIST rose 2.4%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Richards Bay Coal (1.8%), Rotterdam Coal (3.9%), Iron Ore (2.5%), Lean Hogs (2.3%), Arabica Coffee (2.8%), Cattle (1.6%), JKM LNG in Yen (4.4%), Lithium Hydroxide (1.7%), Natural Gas (1.7%), Palladium (5%), Platinum (4.7%), Robusta Coffee (8.4%), Tin (5.9%), Dutch TTF Gas (4.7%), Silver in AUD (3.9%), Silver in ISD (4.5%), Gold in AUD (2.2%), Gold in CAD (1.9%)< Gold in GBP (1.5%), Gold in USD (3%), All World Developed ex USA (2.3%), ATX (2.6%), KBW Banks (4.2%), IDX (5.9%), DJ Industrials (1.9%), DJ Transports (4%), S&P Small Cap 600 (2.2%), Russell 2000 (1.7%), KRE Regional Banks (2.8%), KSE (2.3%), KOSPI (1.8%), FTSE 250 (1.9%), S&P MidCap 400 (1.9%), Mexico (2.5%), Nikkei 225 (3.2%), NIFTY (5.3%), Copenhagen (1.5%), PSE (4.1%), PX (3%), SENSEX (5.5%), SMI (2%), S&P 500 (1.6%), TA35 (4.1%), Nasdaq Transports (5.7%), TSX (1.6%), Vietnam (4.1%), XBI (1.8%), ASX 200 (2.6%), ASX Materials (4.7%), ASX Industrials (4.3%), ASX Small Caps (4.7%) and the UAE’s DFM Index sunk 8.3%.

March 15, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au