Macro Extremes (week ending February 13, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Indian and Norwegian 10 year government bond yields

Richards Bay Coal

Rotterdam Coal *

AUD/CHF *

AUD/THB *

BRL/USD

CHF/USD

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Japanese 2, 5 and 10 year government bond yields *

Australian Coking Coal *

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD and ZAR.

AUD/IDR *

AUD/INR

AUD/JPY

CLP/USD *

CNH/USD *

MYR/USD *

RMB

All World Developed ex USA *

Austria’s ATX Index

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Dow Jones Transports *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

Spain’s IBEX *

Brazil’s BOVESPA *

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

Malaysia’s KLSE *

South Korea’s KOSPI Index *

Mexico’s IPC Index *

Norway’s OBX Index *

Helsinki’s OMX *

Stockholm’s OMX *

South Africa’s SA40 equity Index *

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *

Nasdaq Transports *

Canada’s TSX Index

FTSE 100 *

Poland’s WIG Index *

Türkiye’s BIST *

And the ASX Materials Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

AUD/CAD *

AUD/EUR *

AUD/GBP *

AUD/SGD *

AUD/USD *

Japan’s Nikkei 225 *

And Thailand SET Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

U.S. 2 year government bond yield

Cotton *

CHF/AUD *

EUR/CHF

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

London and CME Cocoa *

Sugar #16 *

USD/CLP *

USD/MXN *

USD/ZAR *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Australian 10 year minus 2 year yield spread *

NZD/AUD

USD/SGD

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields fell.

U.S. 5 year minus U.S. 3 month spread has fallen for 4 weeks.

The U.S. 5 year minus 5 year breakeven inflation rate spread is in a 7 week losing streak.

And the British 30 year yield fell and snapped a 4 week rising streak.

Equities were mixed, again, again.

A few more indices said goodbye to overbought extreme territory.

KBW Banks fell 5% and that was enough to see it leave overbought land.

This was also the case for the KSE, the S&P MidCap 400, U.S. biotechs, Czechia’s PX Index, Israel’s TA-35 and Chile’s IGPA.

Hungary’s BUX fell and broke its 5 week winning streak.

While many remain at overbought extremes and some extended streaks are in place.

Brazil’s BOVESPA have risen for 6 weeks.

The TA35 have climbed for 7 weeks.

EGX & STI have climbed for 8 weeks.

The SOX have risen for 9 weeks.

While Poland’s WIG fell and snapped its 9 weeks of advance.

Austria’s ATX fell and broke and ended 11 weeks of advance.

The All World Developed-ex USA is working a streak of 12 weeks of higher consecutive closing prices.

Commodities were active amongst a concentrated group.

Coal, Coffee, Lumber, Orange Juice & Oats were the notable gainers. 

Cocoa, Hogs, Gases, Distillates & Palladium were amongst the decliners.

Aluminium, Brent Crude & Middle Eastern Urea prices left overbought territory.

The Copper/Gold Ratio is making news lows.

Richards Bay Coal has climbed for 6 weeks from the depths of oversold world.

Arabica Coffee rose and broke 4 weeks of decline.

Sugar has fallen for 4 weeks straight.

Gasoline & Rice both fell and snapped a 5 week rising streak.

U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 10 weeks.

Currencies were quieter.

The big news was the new strength for the Yen and the continued strength in AUD. The latter is evident in the streaks listed below.

AUD/CAD and AUD/USD has risen for 4 weeks.

AUD/SGD has closed higher for the 5^th consecutive week.

AUD/GBP and AUD/IDR has climbed for 6 weeks.

AUD/EUR in 8 week rising streak.

While the AUD/JPY fell and snapped its 5 week winning run.

BRL/USD fell 0.1% which was enough to break its 6 week advance.

CHF/AUD rose to break is 7 weeks of decline.

And the Filipino Peso has climbed for 4 weeks against the USD.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Richards Bay Coal 3%, Rotterdam Coal 1.9%, Baltic Dry Index 8.3%, Cotton 1.7%, Arabica Coffee 2.4%, Lumber 2.2%, Lithium Carbonate 1.5%, Newcastle Coal 2.3%, Orange Juice 15.1%, Robusta Coffee 2.8%, Uranium 2.7%, Oats 3%, Soybeans 1.6%, Wheat 2.4%, All World Developed ex USA 2.5%, IDX 3.5%, TAIEX 5.7%, KOSPI 8.2%, Nikkei 225 5%, SET 5.6%, TA35 2.9%, TSX 1.9%, VN Index 3.9%, ASX Financials 5.4%, ASX 200 2.4%, ASX Materials 5.1% and BIST rose 4.9%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

LME Cocoa (15.9%), CBOT Cocoa (14.1%), Palm Oil (2.5%), Lean Hogs (3.2%), Copper (1.3%), Heating Oil (2.1%), Natural Gas (5.2%), Palladium (2.2%), Gasoline (1.6%), Sugar (1.7%), Dutch TTF Gas (7.6%), Gasoil (3.4%), Urea Middle East (2.6%), Silver in AUD (1.5%), Rice (1.9%), KBW Banks (5.5%), China A50 (1.7%), DJ Transports (2.8%), Nasdaq Composite (2.1%), KRE (3.2%), KSE (2.4%), NDQ (1.4%), Copenhagen (2.2%), PX (4.3%), IGPA (2.7%), Nasdaq Transports (2.7%) and the ASX Industrials fell 2.1%.

February 15, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au