Macro Extremes (week ending February 6, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. \

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Rotterdam Coal *

Brent Crude Oil *

U.S. MidWest Hot Rolled Coil Steel

Newcastle Coal *

S&P GSCI Index *

Middle East Urea

AUD/CHF

AUD/INR

AUD/JPY *

EUR/USD

GBP/JPY *

NZD/USD *

And Thailand’s SET Index *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Australian 2 year government bond yields *

Japanese yield curve *

South Korean 10 year bond yield *

Australian Coking Coal *

LME Aluminium

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

AUD/THB *

CAD/JPY

CHF/JPY *

CLP/USD *

CNH/USD *

EUR/JPY *

MYR/USD *

RMB

All World Developed ex USA

KBW Banks

Dow Jones Transports *

Spain’s IBEX *

Taiwan’s TAIEX

Malaysia’s KLSE

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

South Korea’s KOSPI Index *

S&P MidCap 400

Nasdaq Biotech’s

Japan’s Nikkei 225

Helsinki’s OMX *

Stockholm’s OMX

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 equity Index *

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

Chile’s IGPA *

Israel’s TA-35

Nasdaq Transports *

FTSE 100 *

Poland’s WIG Index *

And the S&P Biotech Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Indian 10 year bond yield *

AUD/CAD *

AUD/EUR

AUD/GBP *

AUD/IDR *

AUD/SGD *

AUD/USD *

MYR/USD

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

Brazil’s BOVESPA *

U.S. Regional Banks Index

Mexico’s IPC Index *

Norway’s OBX Index

And Türkiye’s BIST Index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian 10 year minus 2 year yield spread *

Arabica Coffee

Sugar #16

CHF/AUD

EUR/CHF

EUR/GBP *

USD/CHF

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

London and CME Cocoa *

EUR/AUD

JPY/AUD

JPY/CAD

JPY/EUR

JPY/GBP

NZD/AUD

USD/CLP

USD/CNH

USD/MXN

USD/ZAR

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Cotton

Sugar #16 *

CAD/AUD *

GBP/AUD

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields mostly rose.

Shorter dated UK yields fell as did the U.S. curve.

BofA Corporate High Yields are changing trend, upwards.

Most sovereign bond yields are at risk of mean reversion, which calls for lower travel (or bond buying).

French 10 year yields rose and broke 4 weeks of decline.

British 30 year yield has risen for 5 weeks.

U.S. 5 year minus 5 year inflation break-even has declined for 6 weeks.

And watch the Australian 10 year minus 2 year yield spread.

Equities were mixed, again.

A few more indices said goodbye to overbought extreme territory.

ASX Industrials and KLSE fell and broke 4 weeks up,

Hungary’s BUX and Brazil’s BOVESPA have risen for 5 weeks.

The BUX has closed higher 8 of out last 9 weeks.

The TA35 have climbed for 6 weeks.

BIST fell and broke its 5 week run.

TAIEX fell to break a 6 week winning streak.

EGX & STI have climbed for 7 weeks.

The SOX have risen for 8 weeks.

Poland’s WIG has soared for 9 weeks.

The All World Developed-ex USA & Austria’s ATX have climbed for 11 weeks.

Commodities were mixed but very active.

Cocoa, Urea, Soybeans and Palladium were the notable gainers. 

Silver, Uranium, Lithium, Tin, Coffee and Nickel were the few decliners.

Except for uranium, the losers were repeat offenders.

Copper looks like peaking, for now.

London Cocoa rose and broke 4 week losing streak,

while CME Cocoa has fallen for 6 straight weeks,

North European Hot Rolled Steel & Cocoa rose and snapped a 4 week losing streak.

Palm Oil fell and broke 4 weeks of consecutive advance.

Gold Volatility dropped noticeably.

Heating Oil, Gasoil, Wheat & Newcastle Coal fell and snapped a 4 week winning streak.

Arabica Coffee has strung together 4 weeks of decline.

Gasoline & Rice is working a 5 week rising streak.

U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 9 weeks,

Brent and WTI Crude fell and snapped a 6 week winning streak.

Uranium fell 13% and broke 10 consecutive weeks of higher prices.

And North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel rose to break 5 weeks of losses.

Currencies were busy.

The Aussie rose.

AUD/EUR in 7 week rising streak.

AUD/GBP, AUD/JPY and AUD/IDR in 5 weeks of advance.

AUD/THB and AUS/SGD have climbed for 4 weeks straight.

BRL/USD up for 6 weeks.

CHF and CAD were mixed.

CHF/AUD has fallen for 7 weeks.

And the USD/INR fell and snapped a 6 week winning streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

London Cocoa 4.7%, Palladium 2.2%, Urea U.S. Gulf 3.3%, Middle East Urea 7.1%, Gold in CAD 1.9%, Gold in CHF 1.8%, Gold in EUR 1.7%, Gold in GBP 2%, Rice 1.8%, Soybeans 4.8%, KBW Banks 5.1%, CAC 1.8%, DJIA 2.5%, DJT 8.7%, EGX 4.1%, IBB 1.5%, IJR 3.9%, RTY 2.1%, KRE 7%, Mexico 4.5%, MDY 4.4%, NBI 2.2%, OMXH 2%, OMXS 3.1%, SENSEX 1.6%, SET 2.1%, SMI 2.4%, Nasdaq Transports 8%, TSX 1.7% and ASX Financials rose 1.5%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Aluminium (2.5%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (2.3%), Brent Crude (1.8%), Baltic Dry Index (10.5%), WTI Crude (2.6%), Cotton (3.3%), Palm Oil (1.8%), Heating Oil (4.7%), JKM LNG (3.6%), Arabica Coffee (11.5%), Lumber (1.4%), JKM LNG in Yen (8.5%), Lithium Carbonate (7.8%), Lithium Hydroxide (8.9%), Tin (15.7%), Natural Gas (21.4%), Nickel (5%), Orange Juice (26.4%), Shanghai Rebar (1.5%), Robusta Coffee (8.7%), Sugar # 16 (6.1%),  Tin (10.1%), S&P GSCI (1.8%), CFR Iron Ore (3.2%), CRB (3.3%), TTF Gas (9.1%), Gasoil (5.2%), Uranium (13.1%), Silver in AUD (9.2%), Silver in USD (8.5%), Oats (1.6%), Wheat (1.5%), IDX (4.7%), FCATC (6.5%), HSCEI (3.1%), HSI (3%), IXIC (1.8%), KOSPI (2.6%), NDQ (1.9%), NKY (1.8%), NIFTY (5%), OBX (3.2%), OMXC (2.9%), IGPA (1.8%), Vietnam (4%), XJO (1.8%), XMJ (4.1%), XNJ (2.4%), XSO (7.7%) and Türkiye’s BIST Index (2.3%).

February 8, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au