Macro Extremes (week ending November 21, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian government bond yield curve *

Czech, Danish and Japanese 10 year government bond yields

Japanese 30 year bond yields

U.S. Dollar (DXY) Index

Soybeans *

AUD/JPY *

CAD/JPY *

EUR/GBP

GBP/JPY

MYR/USD *

USD/DKK

USD/KRW

USD/SGD

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Silver

Gold

CHF/JPY

USD/INR

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Czechia’s PX Index *

Chile’s IGSA *

Israel’s TA35 *

And the S&P Biotech ETF *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Korean 10 year government bond yields

EUR/JPY *

USD/JPY

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Bitcoin

Cattle

Nickel

EUR/USD

JPY/CAD

DAX Index

Norway’s OBX Index

And the ASX Financials

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber *

Orange Juice

Sugar #16

Rice *

NZD/AUD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Chile 10 year government bond yield

JPY/EUR

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields fell.

The Aussie yield curve eased and broke its 4 straight weeks of higher rates.

As did Euro, Korean, and Swedish 10 year yields.

The Australian 10 year bond minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread has risen for 4 weeks and is nearly oversold.

And Czech, Kiwi and Japanese 10 year yields has climbed for 5 weeks.

Equities fell.

Several more equity indices left overbought territory such as the TAIEX, Nikkei 225, IBEX and the KOSPI.

Biotech’s added to its recent run higher.

The PX, STI, PSE and Bovespa fell and broke their winning streaks.

While Chile’s IGPA is in a 6 week winning streak.

Egypt’s EGX30 is working a 11 week winning steak.
Philippines’ PSE soared 7.4%, nearly erasing the 8.6% decline seen in the previous 4 weeks.

The FCATC, S&P MidCap 400, SET, ASX 200, ASX Industrials and the Russell 2000 are in 4 week losing streaks.

The latter has sunk 6% over that time.

And Chinese indices are at a 2 month low.

Commodities were subdued compared to past weeks.

Shipping Rates, Lithium Carbonate, Yen traded LNG and Robusta Coffee were the notable gainers. 

Cocoa, Aluminium, Lumber, Palladium and Orange Juice dominated the losers category. 

Gasoline and Heating Oil fell, ending their winning streaks and no longer overbought.

Natural Gas have risen for 5 weeks and has soared 27% over that time.

Orange Juice has fallen for 4 weeks.

Cocoa and Lumber has declined for 5 weeks.

Cattle is in a 6 week losing streak. Readers will remember its recent overbought status.

And Lean Hogs have slumped for 8 weeks.

Currencies moved in stealth mode.

There are a quirky bunch of pairs appearing in this week extreme list.

The Aussie fell.

BRL/USD fell and broke its 5 week winning streak.

The Loonie rose.

The Swissie was weaker.

We saw a mixed Euro

A firmer USD and British Pound.

MYR/USD and EUR/GBP fell and broke their 4 week climb.

And Bitcoin (in USD) has fallen for 4 straight weeks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Baltic Dry Index 6.8%, LNG in Yen 7.6%, Lithium Carbonate 4.1%, Robusta Coffee 6.7%, IBB biotechs 2%, NBO biotechs 1.5%, PSE 7.4%, IGPA 2.2% and the S&P XBI biotech ETF rose 2.3%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Aluminium (3.3%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (1.5%), Brent Crude (2.8%), Cocoa (5.5%), WTI Crude (3.3%), Palm Oil (1.8%), Heating Oil (3.6%), Lumber (3.9%), Orange Juice (9.9%), Palladium (2.8%), Platinum (2.6%), Gasoline (6.2%), S&P GSCI (2.3%), CRB Index (2.2%), Dutch TTF Gas (3.4%), Gasoil (4.6%), Uranium (2%), Shanghai Composite (3.9%), CSI 300 (3.8%), All World Developed ex-USA (3.2%), AEX (2.7%), CAC (2.3%), China A50 (2.1%), DAX (3.3%), DJ Industrials (2%), FCATC (6.8%), MIB (3%), HSCEI (5.1%), Hang Seng (5.1%), IBEX (3.2%), Bovespa (1.9%), TAIEX (3.5%), Nasdaq Composite (2.7%), KOSPI (4%), FTSE 250 (2.1%), Nasdaq 100 (3.1%), Nikkei 225 (3.5%), OBX (1.9%), Helsinki (3.1%), Stockholm (2.1%), PX (2%), SA40 (2.3%), SOX (5.9%), S&P 500 (2%), STI (1.7%), TA35 (2.2%), FTSE 100 (1.6%), WIG (2.5%), ASX Financials (2.9%), ASX 200 (2.5%), ASX Materials (4%), ASX Industrials (1.8%) and the ASX Small Caps fell 3.6%.

November 23, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au