Macro Extremes (week ending November 14, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian government bond yield curve

Norwegian 10 year government bond yields

Bloomberg Commodity Index

Heating Oil

Gasoline

S&P Commodity Index

Gasoil *

Corn

Soybeans *

AUD/GBP

AUD/JPY

CAD/JPY

CHF/AUD

CLP/USD

EUR/GBP

USD/KRW

Dow Jones Industrials

MIB Index

SMI Index

And Poland’s WIG Index

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Silver

Gold

EUR/JPY *

MYR/USD

Shanghai Composite *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Spain’s IBEX *

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

South Korea’s KOSPI *

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Japan’s Nikkei 225 *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Chile’s IGSA *

Canada’s TSX

And the S&P Biotech ETF *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Korean 10 year government bond yields

CHF/JPY

COP/USD

Egypt’s EGX Index *

Brazil’s BOVESPA equity index

Finland’s OMXH

Czechia’s PX Index

Israel’s TA35

And Britain’s FTSE 100

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Bitcoin

Australian 10 year minus Australian 2 year bond yield spread

Chilean 2 & 10 year government bond yield

EUR/CHF

GBP/AUD

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber *

Sugar #16

Rice *

JPY/EUR *

NZD/AUD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Philippine’s PSE equity index

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields mostly rose, again, again.

The Aussie yield curve has risen for 4 straight weeks.

As has the Czech, Euro, Japanese, Korean, Kiwi and Swedish 10 year yields.

The Polish 10 year bond yield rose and broke 4 weeks of decline.

Equities has a bias for higher prices, except for the small and mid caps.

Many equity indices moved into quinella overbought territory.

Biotech’s had a good week.

The PX and STI indices have risen for 4 weeks.

The BOVESPA and Chile’s IGPA are in a 5 week winning streak.

The former has risen 9% over that time.

Egypt’s EGX30 is on a 10 week tear.

Inversely, the KSE and PSE have slumped for 4 consecutive weeks.
Philippines’ PSE has declined 8.6% in those 4 weeks.

While the Russell 2000 has fallen 5% over the last 3 weeks.

Vietnam and the ASX Small Caps rose and broke their 4 weeks losing streak.

Canada’s TSX returns to being overbought.

While the S&P 500 rose 0.1% for the week.

Commodities were active.

Natural Gas, Sugar, Silver, Oats and Distillates were amongst the notable gainers. 

Cocoa, Coffee, Lumber and Orange Juice dominated the losers category. 

Palm Oil rose and broke its 4 week losing streak.

Heating Oil and Natural Gas have risen for 4 weeks.

Gasoline has climbed for 5 straight weeks.

Lumber has declined for 4 weeks.

Lean Hogs have slumped for 7 weeks.

Natural Gas has soared 27% over the past 4 weeks.

And Platinum & Sugar rose and broke its 5weeks of weakness.

Currencies were quieter.

Aussie rose against all except versus ZAR.

BRL/USD is in a 5 week winning streak.

The Loonie fell against everyone except the Yen.

The Euro was firmer against all except the Swissie.

The Yen fell.

Moreover, the JPY/USD is nearing a quinella oversold reading.

The USD fell.

And MYR/USD and EUR/GBP have risen for 4 weeks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.7%, Copper 2.1%, Heating Oil 2.1%, JKM LNG 2.8%, Lithium Carbonate 2.2%, Tin 2.4%, Natural Gas 5.8%, Palladium 1.7%, Gasoline 3%, Sugar 5.3%, Gasoil 2.9%, Urea 2.7%, Silver 4.7%, Gold 2.1%, Oats 5%, Rice 1.9%, All World Developed ex USA 1.6%, ATX 2.1%, CAC 2.8%, DAX 1.3%, MIB 2.5%, HSCEI 1.4%, Hang Seng 1.3%, IBB 4.1%, IBEX 2.8%, BOVESPA 2.4%, KOSPI 1.5%, NBI 4.2%, Nifty 1.6%, Copenhagen 2.3%, Helsinki 1.3%, PX 2.2%, SA40 3.1%, Sensex 1.6%, SMI 2.7%, TA35 3%, Vietnam 2.3%, XBI 4.6% and the ASX Materials rose 3.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Richard Bay Coal (1.9%), Cocoa (11.6%), Cotton (1.5%), Arabica Coffee (2.9%), Lumber (6.5%), Nickel (1.3%), Orange Juice (6.8%), Robusta Coffee (9.1%), FCATC (2.8%), Russell 2000 (1.6%), Mexico (1.7%), PSE (3%), SET (2.6%), SOX (2%), Nasdaq Transports (2.5%), ASX Financials (4.9%) and the ASX 200 fell 1.5%.

November 16, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Happy Birthday Vida & Morty !