Macro Extremes (week ending November 7, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian 2 & 3 year government bond yields *

Czech 10 year government bond yields

Aluminium *

DXY Index *

Soybeans *

EUR/GBP

GBP/USD

MYR/USD

USD/CHF

USD/DKK

USD/KRW

USD/SGD

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Silver in AUD and USD *

Gasoil

Gold in CAD & GBP *

EUR/JPY *

Shanghai Composite *

CSI 300 *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Spain’s IBEX *

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Korea’s KOSPI *

Japan’s Nikkei 225 *

Finland’s OMXH *

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Chile’s IGSA *

Israel’s TA35 *

FTSE 100 *

And the S&P Biotech ETF *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Korean 10 year government bond yields

Brazil’s BOVESPA equity index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Nickel (MCX) *

CHF/USD

EUR/USD

Philippine’s PSE equity index

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithjium Hydroxide

Sugar #16

Urea (Middle East) *

Rice *

JPY/EUR *

NZD/AUD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Sugar *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields mostly rose, again.

The British yield curve rose and broke its 5 weeks of advance.

U.S. 3 month bill yields have fallen 8 weeks.

And Polish 10 year yields have fallen for 6 weeks.

Equities were mixed, with a bias for weakness.

The Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, the KSE and Canada’s TSX left overbought territory.

The BUX, KOSPI and Finland’s OMXH fell and snapped 5 week winning streaks.
The biotech indices broke their 7 weeks of advance.

Brazil’s BOVESPA and Chile’s IGPA have a 4 week winning streak.

The former has risen 9% over that time.

Egypt’s EGX has advanced for 9 weeks.

TAIEX broke its 10 week winning streak.

Vietnam and the ASX Small Caps have fallen for 4 weeks.

Philippines’ PSE index is oversold mimicking the same for its currency.

Canada’s TSX broke a 12 week streak of being overbought.

While the Nikkei 225 has risen for 9 of the past 11 weeks.

Commodities were active.

Heating Oil, Shipping Rates, Coffee and Distillates were amongst the notable gainers. 

Copper, Cotton, Crude Oil, Palladium, Urea, Uranium dominated the losers category. 

Gold eased slightly that it’s no longer overbought in various currencies.

Platinum and Sugar have fallen for 5 weeks.

Natural Gas has soared 21% over the past 3 weeks.

And Lean Hogs have fallen for 6 weeks.

Currencies were busy.

The CAD and AUD fell and last week’s overbought pairs are no longer.

The Euro and Yen rose.

The British Pound was mixed.

BRL/USD is in a 4 week winning streak.

And the PHP/USD is nearly oversold.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Baltic Dry Index 7%, North Euro Steel 2.5%, Heating Oil 3.5%, Arabica Coffee 4%, Newcastle Coal 2.6%, Natural Gas 4.6%, Gasoline 2.1%, Robusta Coffee 2.4%, Gasoil 5.9%, IDX 2.8%, DJ Transports 2%, EGX 4.4%, BOVESPA 3%, KRE Regional Banks 1.7%, IGPA 1.9% and the TA 35 rose 1.9%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Australian Coking Coal (1.8%), Aluminium (1,6%), Brent Crude Oil (1.8%), Cocoa (2.2%), WTI Crude Oil (2%), Cotton (2.9%), Palm Oil (2.3%), Lean Hogs (2.3%), Copper (2.6%), Cattle (3.6%), Lithium Carbonate (4%), Tin (1.6%), Orange Juice (1.9%), Palladium (3.6%), Platinum (1.7%), Sugar (2.3%), Iron Ore (3.6%), Urea U.S. Gulf (1.7%), Urea Middle East (5.8%), Uranium (6.7%), Rice (2.8%), AEX (2.1%), DAX (1.6%), Russell 2000 (1.9%), TAIEX (2.1%), Nasdaq Composite (3%), KOSPI (3.7%), FTSE 250 (1.8%), Nasdaq Biotech (1.3%), Nasdaq Composite (3.1%), Nikkei 225 (4.1%), OMX-H (1.7%), PSE (2.9%), SOX (3.9%), S&P 500 (1.6%), XBI Biotech (3.3%), ASX Materials (3%), ASX Industrials (2%) and the ASX Small Caps (3.8%).

November 9, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au