Macro Extremes (week ending October 31, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian 2 & 3 year government bond yields

Korean 10 year government bond yields

U.S. 5 year minus U.S. 3 month yield spread

Aluminium *

DXY Index

Soybeans

AUD/EUR

AUD/GBP

AUD/JPY

AUD/THB

CAD/JPY

EUR/GBP

GBP/JPY *

USD/JPY *

IDX 30

FTSE 250 *

WIG

And the ASX Financials index

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Silver in AUD and USD *

Gold in CAD & GBP

CAD/JPY *

EUR/JPY *

Shanghai Composite *

CSI 300 *

Hungary’s BUX Index

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Spain’s IBEX *

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

Nasdaq Composite *

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Nasdaq 100

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 *

S&P 500

Chile’s IPSA

Israel’s TA35

Canada’s TSX *

FTSE 100 *

S&P Biotech ETF *

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Aluminium (LME) *

South Korea’s KOSPI *

Japan’s Nikkei 225 *

Finland’s OMXH *

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian 10 year minus Australian 2 year bond yield spread

Australian 10 year minus Australian 5 year bond yield spread

Chilean 2 year bond yield

British 2, 3, 5 & 10 year bond yields

Nickel (MCX)

GBP/USD

JPY/CAD *

JPY/USD

PHP/USD

USD/CNH

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber

Lithium Carbonate

Urea (Middle East) *

Rice *

JPY/EUR *

NZD/AUD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Sugar *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields mostly rose.

The British yield curve along with Polish 10’s have fallen for 5 weeks.

U.S. 3 month bill yields have fallen 7 weeks.

U.S, 10’s, 20’s and inflation break-even spreads rose and broke 4 weeks of decline.

U.S. 30’s rose and broke a 5 weeks losing streak.

And U.S. Corporate BB rated and 5-7 year investment grade paper remain close to being oversold.

Equities were mixed.

Some new names joined the overbought list.

The BUX, KOSPI and Finland’s OMXH are in a 5 week winning streak.

The Nifty and the Sensex fell and broke 4 weeks of advance.
The biotech indices have risen for 7 weeks.

Egypt’s EGX has advanced for 8 weeks.

TAIEX has climbed for 10 weeks.

The SOX closed higher for 7 of the past 8 weeks.

While the Nikkei 225 has risen for 9 of the past 10 weeks.

Commodities were active.

Natural Gas, Uranium, Soybean and Wheat were amongst the notable gainers. 

Palm Oil, Cocoa, Lumber, Orange Juice and Sugar dominated the losers category. 

Platinum, Palladium & Gold (across various currencies) left overbought territory.

The former has declined for 4 weeks.

Sugar is in 4 week losing streak and registers an oversold quinella.

Lean Hogs have fallen for 5 weeks.

Rice rose and snapped 8 weeks of losses.

And Lumber has sunk 15% in the past fortnight.

Currencies were busy.

Various AUD and JPY pairs a featuring in this week’s list of extremes.

The Aussie and Loonie rose, again.

The Euro and Yen were weaker.

While the USD firmed slightly.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 1.5%, Newcastle Coal 2.1%, Natural Gas 7.8%, Gasoline 1.7%, Uranium 7%, Corn 2%, Rice 1.5%, Soybean 5.2%, Wheat 4.2%, BUX 3%, DJ Transports 2.8%, MIB 1.6%, IBB 2.7%, BOVESPA 2.3%, TAIEX 2.6%, Nasdaq Composite 2.7%, KOSPI 4.2%, Mexico 2.7%, NBI 3.4%, Nasdaq 100 2%, Nikkei 225 6.3%, Helsinki 1.6%, PX 1.8%, SOX 3.6%, IGPA 2.6%, TA35 2.3% and XBI biotech ETF rose 4%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Richards Bay Coal (1.9%), Rotterdam Coal (1.5%), Cocoa (2.7%), Palm Oil (4.9%), JKM LNG (1.8%), Arabica Coffee (2.7%), Lumber (8.7%), Cattle (1.8%), JKM LNG in Yen (2%), Orange Juice (8.5%), Palladium (1.8%), Platinum (1.7%), Sugar (3.6%), Dutch TTF Gas (3.6%), Gold in AUD (3.2%), Gold in CAD (2.6%), Gold in CHF (1.6%), Gold in EUR (2%), Gold in USD (2.7%), Gold in ZAR (2.3%), Oats (6.2%), China A50 (1.8%), HSCEI (2.1%), S&P SmallCap 600 (2.8%), Russell 2000 (1.3%), KRE Regional Banks (2%), FTSE 250 (1.5%) and the ASX Industrial Index fell 1.5%.

November 2, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au