Macro Extremes (week ending October 10, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Danish and Korean 10 year government bond yields

Gold Volatility Index

Aluminium 

AUD/THB

GBP/JPY

USD/CAD

USD/INR

USD/JPY

USD/KRW

USD/SGD

DAX Index

And Switzerland’s SMI equity index *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Cattle

Platinum *

CHF/JPY

Shanghai Composite Index *  

CSI 300 *

AEX Index

CAC Index

Indonesia’s IDX Index

Egypt’s EGX Index *

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

Pakistan’s KSE Index * 

South Korea’s KOSPI *

Japan’s Nikkei 225 *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *

Singapore’s Strait Times Index

Israel’s TA35

Canada’s TSX 

Vietnam’s VN Index 

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Silver in AUD & USD *

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD & ZAR *

S&P Biotech Index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Cocoa (U.S.)

Cotton

JPY/USD

NZD/USD

USD/ZAR

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Indonesia 10 year government bond yield

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Richards Bay Coal *

Cocoa (London)

Lithium Carbonate *

Rice *

Urea (Middle East)

Wheat

NZD/AUD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

None

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields fell, again.

Japanese 5 year and Russian 10 year bond yield have risen for 5 weeks.

The U.S. 5 year minus U.S. inflation rate is staying close to oversold territory.

Equities had a lousy week.

A few equity indices left the overbought ranks.

The S&P 500, China’s FCATC, Hang Seng Index, Spain’s IBEX and the Nasdaq Composite were amongst those who fell and are not overbought this week.

Whilst many equity indices appear in the decliners category, many Asian indices rose for the week.

Egypts EGX has advanced for 5 weeks.

While South Africa’s SA40 and France’s CAC fell and snapped their 4 week winning streak.

AEX, KSE, PX and SOX all fell and broke their 5 week winning streaks.

While the ASX Small Caps stretches its winning streak to 10 weeks.

Commodities were busy, again.

Palm Oil, Cattle, Palladium, Silver and Gold were amongst the notable gainers. 

Copper, Crude Oil, Cocoa, Coffee, Orange Juice, Tin, Urea and Rice dominated the losers category. 

Tin dropped out of overbought territory.

Palladium have mean reverted….upwards.

While Platinum fell and broke its 9 week winning streak.

Cattle, Cocoa, Urea and Wheat are new entrants to this weeks extremes.

Silver and Gold (across various currencies) have risen for 8 consecutive weeks.

The Copper/Gold Ratio fell.

Richards Bay Coal has slumped for 11 week consecutive weeks.

Cocoa is in a 8 week losing streak.

Middle Eastern Urea prices have sunk for 7 weeks

Rice has swooned for 6 weeks.

Corn and Wheat have fallen for the past 4 weeks.

And Oats have posted 12 losing weeks of the past 14.

Currencies were active, again.

We saw some changes with some pairs leaving and others joining the extreme list.

The Aussie exactly reversed last weeks action. It fell against all except the Yen.

The Brazilian Real rose 3% vs the USD.

In some resilience of the risk-off mood seen in equities, the CAD rose.

The Swiss Franc was mixed.

Yen was weaker and didn’t see any buying on the back of equity weakness.

GBP was mostly firmer.

The DXY rose 1.2% for the week and you’ll see many USD pairs in overbought territory.

The Thai Baht has fallen for 4 weeks versus the USD.

While the USD rose again the South African Rand and broke a 5 week losing streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Palm Oil 2.3%, Cattle 3.4%, JKM LNG in Yen 5.4%, Palladium 13.7%, Dutch TTF Gas 2.3%, Silver in AUD 6.8%, Silver in USD 4.8%, Gold in AUD 5.4%, Gold in ZAR 5%, Gold in other currencies rose between 3.4%-4.4%, BUX 1.5%, IDX 1.7%, TAIEX 2%, KOSPI 1.7%, Nikkei 225 5.1%, Nikkei 225 5.1%, NIFTY 1.6%, SENSEX 1.6%, TA35 2.4%, Vietnam 6.2% and the XBI Biotech ETF rose 1.3%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Richards Bay Coal (2.9%), Rotterdam Coal (2.6%), Brent Crude Oil (2.8%), Cocoa (5.5%), WTI Crude Oil (3.3%), Copper (4.2%), Heating Oil (1.4%), Arabica Coffee (4.5%), Newcastle Coal (1.7%), Natural Gas (6.6%), Orange Juice (12.7%), Gasoline (2.2%), Sugar (2.3%), Tin (3.9%), CRB Index (2.2%), Gasoil (1.9%), Urea Middle East (3.3%), Uranium (2.4%), Corn (1.4%), Rice (3.9%), Wheat (3.3%), All World Developed ex USA (1.8%), AEX (2.2%), ATX (1.9%), KBW Banks (5%), CAC (2%), China A50 (4.9%), DJ Industrials (2.7%), DJ Transports (4.9%), FCATC (4.6%), MIB (2.8%), HSCEI (3.1%), Hang Seng (3.1%), BOVESPA (2.4%), S&P SmallCap 600 (4.8%), Russell 2000 (3.3%), Nasdaq Composite (2.5%), KRE Regional Banks (5.1%), FTSE 250 (1.8%), S&P MidCap 400 (3.8%), Mexico (2.3%), Nasdaq 100 (2.3%), SOX (2.7%), IGPA (2.3%), S&P 500 (2.4%), Nasdaq Transports (2.8%) and Canada’s TSX fell 2%.

 

October 12, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au