Macro Extremes (week ending August 29, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Austrian, Chinese, French, British and Indian 10 year government bond yields *

IEF

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread

AUD/INR

RMB/USD

KLSE

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Cattle * 

Urea (Middle East) prices * 

Shanghai Composite Index * 

Egypt’s EGX 30 equity index * 

Pakistan’s KSE Index * 

South Korea’s KOSPI * 

South Africa’s SA40 * 

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices 

Canada’s TSX *  

Vietnam’s VN Index * 

The ASX 200 * 

ASX Industrials * 

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread

CSI 300 *

China’s A50 equity index *

FCATC Index * 

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Belgian and New Zealand 10 year government bond yield  

NZD/AUD 

NZD/USD *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Indonesian 10 year government bond yield  

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Lumber *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields mostly eased…..

with the exception of Sweden, Russia and Portugal.

Indonesian 10 year yields are in a 4 week falling streak.

U.S. 3 month bill are oversold and in a 5 week losing streak. 

And Indian 10’s have climbed for 8 weeks. 

Equities rose mixed with a slight bias towards weakness. 

This has resulted in half of last week’s overbought entrants no longer being so, this week. 

Chinese indices persist with their overbought extreme quinella’s.

The following indices are in 4 week winning streaks; CSI 300, KBW Banks, China A50, FCATC, Bovespa, Russell 2000, KRE Regional Banks, IGPA, IPSA, TSX, Vietnam, ASX 200 and ASX Small Caps.

The ASX Financials fee and broke their 4 week rising streak. 

The Aussie Industrials broke their 5 weeks of consecutive advance.

Karachi fell and saw its 9 week winning streak end.

And the HSCEI and Hang Seng performed bearish outside reversals.

Commodities were mixed.

Hogs, Precious Metals, Coffee, Corn, Rice and Tin were amongst the notable gainers. 

Palm Oil, LNG Gas, Palladium, Steel and Lumber dominated the losers category. 

Rice rose and left the oversold region.

Richards Bay Coal, Lumber and U.S. Gulf urea prices are in 4 week losing streaks.

Arabica Coffee, Platinum, Tin and Uranium have risen for 4 weeks straight.

Robusta Coffee has climbed for 5 weeks.

Middle East Urea prices have risen for 9 weeks.

Cattle has closed higher for 10 straight weeks.  

Henry Hub Natural Gas rose 8% and snapped a 5 week losing streak.  

And Oats rose to break a 7 week losing streak. 

Currencies were subdued.

The Aussie and Loonie were stronger. 

The British Pound and Yen were slightly softer.

This saw the AUD/GBP rise and end its 4 week losing streak.

Euro was weaker.

USD/SEK has declined for 4 weeks.

And the NZD/AUD is a 5 week losing streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Baltic Dry Index 4.2%, North European Hot Rolled Coiled Steel 1.9%, Lean Hogs 4.2%, Arabica Coffee 2.1%, Lithium Carbonate 1.6%, Tin 3.8%, Natural Gas 8.2%, Nickel 2.1%, Robusta Coffee 3.6%, uranium 3.2%, Silver in AUD 1.4%, Silver in USD 2.1%, Gold in AUD 1.5%, Gold in CAD 1.6%, Gold in CHF 2.2%, Gold in EUR 2.6%, Gold in GBP 2.4%, Gold in USD 2.2%, Gold in ZAR 3.5%, Corn 2.1%, Oats 2.2%, Rice 2.9%, Wheat 1.3%, CSI 300 2.7%, KBW Banks 1.9%, FCATC 3%, BOVESPA 2.5%, TAEIX 2%, TA35 2.5%, Vietnam 2.2%, ASX Materials 2.6% and ASX Small Caps rose 3.1%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Palm Oil (3.3%), Heating Oil (1.5%), HRC (4.1%), JKM LNG (2.9%), Lumber (9%), LNG in Yen (5.6%), Palladium (2.5%), Gasoline (1.3%), Dutch TTF Gas (6.4%), AEX (1.8%), ATX (3.6%), BUX (2.8%), CAC (3.3%), DAX (1.9%), MIB (2.6%), HSCEI (1.5%), IBEX (3%), IDX (2.8%), FTSE 250 (2.1%), NIFTY (1.8%), Copenhagen (2.8%), Helsinki (1.8%), Stockholm (2.4%), PSE (2%), PX (1.4%), SENSEX (1.8%), SET (1.3%), SOX (1.5%), Nasdaq Transport (2.3%), WIG (2.7%) and the FTSE 100 fell 1.4%.

August 31, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au