Macro Extremes (week ending August 8, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

USD/INR *

Thailand’s SET Index

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

Cattle *

Urea (Middle East) prices *

Shanghai Composite Index *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Spain’s IBEX

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

South Korea’s KOSPI *

Czechia’s PX Index

South Africa’s SA40

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices

Canada’s TSX *

Vietnam’s VN Index *

And Polands WIG equity index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Egypt’s EGX 30 equity index 

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Wheat

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields mostly rose.

The exception included the decline in Spanish and Japanese yields.

Australian 2 and 3 years yields mean reverted.

Indian 10’s have climbed for 5 weeks.

Russian 10 year bonds yield has fallen for 12 straight weeks.

The U.S. 30 year – 10 year bond yield spread is approaching overbought territory.

Equities rose, everywhere.

And there were some beefy advances.

Spain, Thailand and Chile’s main indices join a host of indices are in overbought territory.

The Tel Aviv 35 left overnight territory.

Egypt is in a 5 week winning streak.

Czechia’s main indices have risen for 6 weeks straight.

Karachi, Bangkok and Istanbul are in 7 week winning streaks.

Vietnam’s VN Index has risen for 11 of the past 14 weeks, climbing 29% over that time.

Oslo rose and broke its 4 weeks of decline.

While the Sensex and Nifty has fallen for 6 consecutive weeks.

Commodities were mixed.

Coffee, Aluminium , Cocoa, Silver and Rice were the notable gainers.

Crude Oil, Lumber, Palladium, Gases and Thermal Coal dominated the losers category.

Palladium has declined 13% in the past 3 weeks, since registering an overbought quinella.

U.S. Gulf Urea prices fell, broke a 8 week streak and left overbought territory.

While Robusta Coffee and North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel rose and are no longer oversold.

U.S. Hot Rolled Coil Steel have fallen for 5 weeks.

Cattle prices are in a 7 week winning streak.

Inversely, Oats have fallen for the past 5 weeks.

And Corn and Sugar prices are nearly oversold.

Currencies were subdued.

The Aussie and British Pound rose.

The Euro and Loonie were mixed.

The USD was mostly weaker. 

The Yen fell to mimic the ‘risk-on’ mood.,

The PHP/USD rose and brook its 4 week losing streak. 

And the U.S. Dollar is in a 6 week rising streak versus the Indian Rupee.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Australian Coking Coal 2.4%, Aluminium 2.8%, Cocoa 4.3%, North European Hot Rolled Cow Steel 3.5%, Arabica Coffee 8.9%, Tin 3%, Platinum 1.7%, Robusta Coffee 6.9%, Rice 3.8%, Silver in AUD 2.7%, Silver in USD 3.5%, Shanghai Composite 2.1%, AD02 2.9%, ATX 5.9%, BUX 3.8%, CAC 2.6%, China A50 2.3%, DAX 3.2%, DJ Industrials 1.6%, Egypt 4.7%, FCATC 2.1%, MIB 4.2%, Hang Seng 1.4%, IBEX 4.9%, BOVESPA 2.6%, IDX 2.2%, S&P SmallCap 600 2.2%, Russell 2000 2.5%, TAIEX 2.5%, Nasdaq Composite 3.8%, KSE 3.1%, KOSPI 2.9%, Mexico 2.1%, Nasdaq 100 3.7%, Nikkei 225 2.5%, Copenhagen 2.1%, Helsinki 2.4%, Stockholm 2.7%, PX 3.2%, SA40 3.7%, SET 3.3%, SOX 2.7%, IGPA 4.3%, S&P 500 2.4%, IPSA 4.4%, STI 2.1%, Nasdaq Transports 1.7%, TSX 2.7%, Vietnam 6%, WIG 5%, BIST 2.1%, ASX 200 1.7%, ASX Industrials 5.2% and ASX SmallCaps rose 4.1%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Rotterdam Coal (2.4%), Brent Crude Oil (4.4%), WTI Crude Oil (5.1%), Lumber (6.2%), LNG in Yen (8.1%), Newcastle Coal (2.6%), Natural Gas (3%), Palladium (6.1%), Gasoline (1.5%), S&P GSCI (1.4%), Dutch TTF Gas (4.5%), Urea U.S Gulf (3.8%), Corn (1.7%) and Israel’s TA35 equity index fell 2.7%.

August 10, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au