Macro Extremes (week ending June 20, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Czech 10 year government bond yield * 

Brent Crude Oil *

WTI Crude Oil *

Heating Oil *

Silver

Gasoil 

Uranium

BRL/USD

Oats

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

U.S. Mid West Hot Rolled Coil Steel

Hungary’s BUX index

Norway’s OBX index

And the ASX 200 Industrials index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Platinum * 

KOSPI *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Arabica Coffee

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

HKD/USD *

And Thailand’s SET equity index *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Robusta Coffee

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields generally fell, again.

Swiss 10’s bucked that week’s mood and rose.

Then BB rated U.S. corporate bond yield mean reverted.

The yields of Chilean 2’s, British 30’s, Russian 10’s and Japanese 5’s & 10’s have all declined for 4 straight weeks.

Italian 10 year bond yields also mean reverted.

Indonesian 10 year bond yields broke their 4 week losing streak.

Indian 10’s rose for the 3rd week and left oversold territory.

And U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year yield spread are nearly overbought again.

Equities were mixed.

A few new names joined the overbought extreme list this week.

Indonesias IDX is in a 4 week losing streak.

Thailand’s SET index has declined for 6 consecutive weeks.

Inversely, Norway’s and South Korea’s main indices are in 4 week winning streaks.

The latter is at a quinella of extremes.

And Australia’s Financials, ASX Small Caps and ASX 200 indices broke their 5 week winning streaks.

Commodities were mixed.

Oils and Distillates continue to be in the news.

Brent Crude, Heating Oil and JKM LNG prices have risen 21%, 23.5% and 13% respectively over the past 3 weeks.

Gasoil (diesel) rose 11% for the week, notwithstanding Friday’s 5% decline.

The Baltic Dry Index fell 14%, giving up a third of the 40% advance seen over the previous 3 weeks.

Silver remains overbought, while Gold isn’t.

Platinum records a quinella overbought reading,

The largest winners were Oils and Distillates, Palm Oil, Urea, Uranium and Platinum.

The notable losers included Cocoa, Coffee, Orange Juice, oats, Corn, and Shipping Rates.

U.S. Hot Rolled Coil Steel returns to being overbought.
Sugar prices have fallen for the past 6 weeks.

Robusta Coffee is in a 8 week losing streak.

And Rice broke its 5 week winning streak.

Currencies were subdued.

A host of currencies from last weeks list have left extreme territory.

The Aussie rose against most pairs.

The CAD fell except vs the JPY which is in a 4 week winning streak.

The CHF/JPY, EUR/JPY and USD/INR have risen for 4 straight weeks too.

The U.S. Dollar rose.

The Filipino Peso has fallen for 4 straight weeks against the USD.

And the BRL/USD is in overbought territory.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Brent Crude 3.8%, WTI Crude Oil 3.3%, Palm Oil 5%, Lean Hogs 3%, Heating Oil 7%, JKM LNG 6.5%, JKM in Yen 12.6%, Newcastle Coal 3.2%, Natural Gas 7.4%, Platinum 4.3%, Gasoline 4.4%, S&P GSCI 2.2%, Dutch TTF Gas 2.1%, Urea Gulf 2.9%, Gasoil 10.9%. Uranium 10.4%, Wheat 4.3%, KBW Banks Index 3.3%, BUX 3.4%, KOSPI 4.4%, Nikkei 225 1.5%, NIFTY 1.6%, SOX 1.9% and Vietnam’s VN Index rose 2.6%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Australian Coking Coal (2.3%), Baltic Dry Index (14.2%), Cocoa (8.8%), Cotton (1.7%), Arabica Coffee (9%), Lumber (1.7%), Tin (1.7%), Orange Juice (14.9%), Robusta Coffee (12.4%), Gold in USD (1.8%), Corn (3.5%), Oats (6.7%), IDX (4.5%), Egypt (7%), IBB (2%), Mexico (2%), NBI (2%), Copenhagen (4%), SET (4.9%), SMI (2.3%) and the ASX Industrials fell 4.3%.

For reference, the S&P 500 fell 0.2% for the week.  

June 22, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au