What if the unemployment rate doubles?

I’m conditioning myself to see U.S. #unemployment rate between 5.5% – 6% within 30 months.

Opining that it should hold the current 3.7% levels is fighting against (my work on) probability and more so when you consider the quantum change seen in interest rates.

I’ll give you a floor of 3.3%.

What if the #unemploymentrate nearly doubles?

What do various capital markets look like with a 6% U.S. unemployment rate?

In business, wage pressure would certainly ease.

It’s not a very sharp outlook for residential real estate, especially if you lose your job.

February 25, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au