What if bond yields halve?

I think U.S. 2 year bond yields will fall.

I also think that the Australian 2 year bond yields decline.

I think they respectively test (+/- 0.10%) these next levels;

Aussie 2’s

3.5%, 2.85% & 2.30%

U.S. 2’s

4.10%, 3.35% & 2.75%

The trick will be the timeframe, but I’m going to put it somewhere between the next 7 – 15 months.

If this eventuates, the recent decline in yields such as the U.S. 2’s only falling from 5.26% to their current 4.83%. is hardly newsworthy.

Moreover, I’m pondering all of the affects that such a move would have on other assets and businesses.

This note is reprising my October 30, 2023 comments doubting the calls for higher yields, lasting for longer.

Pfft…..higher for longer

November 17, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au