Sold down the river

I’m looking for a further 17% decline in the price of Rio Tinto shares.

That’s no small beans, as such a move would reduce its market capitalisation an additional A$27 billion.

The red vertical line in the chart below is when I wrote my original note on January 31, 2023 which suggested lower price targets to look for.

Those going long around the recent $128 price level may have been deked into thinking new highs were pending.

Beyond some underlying thoughts that Iron ore prices were temporarily “full” around the $125 mark, my lack of conviction for the Rio Tinto’s share price is sympathetic with my view where I think broader commodity prices and the Australian Dollar are headed.

May 1, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au